798
FXUS61 KCTP 140527
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
127 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Trending mostly cloudy and humid with periods of showers and
  locally heavy downpours tonight through the upcoming Father`s
  Day weekend
* Unsettled pattern continues next week ample chances for rain

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Early this evening a tight instability gradient is present near
the PA/MD line. So far a narrow corridor of enhanced shear and
instability has led to thunderstorm development just to the
south of the area. The lack of instability has resulted in a
hostile environment for any thunderstorms further north but did
increase the pops across south central Pennsylvania to account
for the ongoing showers. Temperatures were also lowered a few
degrees in this area as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Episodic showers and storms continue through Saturday with the
primary hazard being localized heavy downpours. WPC keeps most
of CPA in the MRGL ERO for D3/Saturday. It won`t be raining the
entire time/not a washout -- but most locations will see some
rain showers. Increased cloud cover along with humidity points
toward lower daytime highs (70s) and higher nighttime lows
(60s).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall tone/message of the long term has not changed with this
late evening update = high PoPs (relatively for the long range).
While confidence in timing of the stronger waves is low,
confidence is high that we`ll get wet many of these days. WPC
ERO places PA in the MRGL category for Days 3,4,& 5 (Sat-Mon).

Prev...
Unsettled weather pattern continues into next week with ample
opportunities for rain. A series of shortwave impulses rippling
west to east into a high PW corridor within a quasi zonal or
"troughy" 500mb configuration from Midwest into the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast will continue to bring periods of rain
showers and locally heavy downpours. WPC ERO for Sunday (D4)
includes all of CPA while shifting the southern tier on Monday
(D5).

Sunday/Monday look like the coolest days with CAD signature
established to the north of sfc wave tracking through the
Delmarva. Temps rebound by midweek as flow shifts back to the
west/southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Ceilings are beginning to lower with rain showers moving in from
the west. Current MVFR conditions at the majority of terminals
will worsen to IFR within the next few hours, with conditions likely
staying IFR through the TAF period, or bouncing conditions
between MVFR and IFR.


Outlook...

Saturday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the late afternoon and early
evening hours.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTP
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...CTP
LONG TERM...CTP
AVIATION...BGM