114
FXUS61 KCTP 160040
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
840 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The threat for thunderstorms today has ended.
* The heat advisory has expired.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wildfire smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota will
trigger code red and orange air quality alerts Thursday and
Friday

2) Thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy rainfall to
start the weekend followed by cooling trend next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Wildfire smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota
will trigger code red and orange air quality alerts Thursday
and Friday

The smoke will continue to overspread the Commonwealth tonight
into tomorrow. As of 8 PM, lowest air quality index (AQI) in PA
was over the northeast corner, on the north side of a cold
front that pushed through earlier this evening. The HRRR model
shows this area of smoke pushing due south and impacting places
east of I-99 through sunrise. However, the more dense smoke is
still located over the Great Lakes. This batch of smoke is
progged to arrive in the northwest mountains around sunrise and
push southeastward across the rest of central PA during the day
on Thursday.

The PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has issued
statewide Code Red Air Quality Alert for Thursday and Code
Orange Air Quality Alert for Friday. These alerts are based on
predicted 24 hour averages. Individual hours may see worse air
quality.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy
rainfall to start the weekend followed by cooling trend next
week

Thunderstorms are expected Saturday and could produce locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. PW values are
forecast to reach the 1.5-2.0" range which suggests intense rain
rates will be possible. A drying trend is expected Sunday.
Additional bouts of rain/t-storms are possible into the workweek.
Temperatures will trend near to below historical averages
through late week with some noticeable cooler nights possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Smoke from fires up in Canada and northern Minnesota will be
across the area through Thursday. For western airfields
(BFD/JST/AOO), smoke will transition from mostly elevated at 00z
Thu to more sfc level through the day on Thursday as smoke
comes in from the northwest. For eastern airfields
(IPT/UNV/MDT/LNS), sfc level smoke already moved into IPT behind
a cold front that pushed through earlier Wed evening. This
smoke is expected to move south into at least LNS by 4z. MDT and
UNV will be on the western periphery of this batch of smoke,
but likely will also see vsby drop later tonight. The eastern
airfields will see a reinforcing shot of sfc level smoke come
in from the west in the late afternoon or early evening on
Thursday. Aside from smoke, there may also be some valley fog
late tonight into Thursday morning mainly in the north.

With a cold front across the southern tier of PA by 18z Thu,
can`t rule out a few popup showers or thundershowers (10 pct chc
at JST, MDT, LNS) otherwise dry through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Fri AM...Mainly VFR, with areas of late night/AM fog. Some
reduced visibility possible from smoke, with an isolated late-
day SHRA/TSRA possible.

Fri PM-Sun...Chance of showers and t-storms, mainly during
the afternoon hours on Saturday into early Sunday aft.

Mon...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No daily records were tied or broken today (Jul 15).

Daily record high max temperatures for July 15th
_______________________
   SITE | RECORD/YEAR |
-----------------------
MDT     |   99/2024   |
-----------------------
IPT     |  103/1995   |
-----------------------
AOO     |   98/1995   |
-----------------------
BFD     |   88/2013   |
-----------------------
STCP1   |   97/1887   |
-----------------------

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
Thursday night for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-
041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl