110
FXUS61 KCTP 272353
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
753 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Flood Watch previously in effect until 20Z has been cancelled

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably cooler and tranquil/pleasant weather conditions
forecast to move into the region tonight and last right through
the last weekend of May

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonably cooler and tranquil/pleasant weather
conditions forecast to move into the region tonight and last
right through the last weekend of May

A sharp, deep-layer, North/South Theta-E gradient over that
part of our CWA (noted via the latest RAP run) along with WoFS
data indicates that at best, another 0.25-0.50" of rain will
occur over the next 2-3 hours across far Southern Somerset
County.

This amount of additional rain will not pose a flooding threat,
especially considering the several hour break in the rainfall
across that area late this morning and early this afternoon.

The rest of the forecast is pretty much on track with
predominantly dry conditions across Central and Northern PA and
afternoon high temps ranging from a few deg below normal (low
70s) over the Laurel Highlands, to as much as 8-10 deg F above
normal (upper 70s-low 80s) over the NE (where the most sun will
occur "ahead" of a cold front).

Isolated showers are possible near and just in advance of the
frontal boundary across Central and Northern PA late today/
this evening, but any rainfall will likely be very brief and
amount to just a few hundredths of an inch.

A light west, then northwest breeze and neg llvl theta-E
advection overnight should help to keep the T/Td spread at
least a few to several deg F wide in most places, but some
patchy fog is expected across Southern PA where rain fell today
and the wind could go calm at times.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonably cooler and tranquil/pleasant weather
conditions forecast Thursday through the last weekend of May

The mainly-dry cold frontal passage later tonight/early
Thursday will be followed by cooler and drier/less humid air
for Thursday followed by high pressure building SE into the
Commonwealth through the late week period.

Reinforcing troughing over the Northeast should result in near
to below normal temperatures (seasonably cool) and low to nil
precipitation chances for the last weekend of May.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Regionwide VFR is expected through the end of the 00Z TAF
period, with exceptions being highly localized visibility
restrictions in any heavier showers this evening & patchy valley
fog across the Northern/Southern Tiers tonight.

A weak cold front moving southward across the Commonwealth this
evening is producing spotty showers (PROB30s at KUNV/KMDT/KLNS
through 02-05Z Thursday). Localized visibility restrictions may
occur in any heavy showers that develop given PW values around
1.0" to 1.5", with one such shower located around 30 miles W of
KUNV at 00Z Thursday, though most showers have been too light to
result in flight restrictions. Otherwise, clearing skies
overnight + wet surfaces from recent rainfall may support patchy
overnight fog across the Northern/Southern Tiers, though no
mentions were included in the TAF due to low confidence &
coverage at our forecast sites.

Behind the front on Thursday, winds will trend NNW sustained at
around 15-20 kts gusting to around 20-25 kts. Cool air aloft
(850 mb temperatures around 5-10C) + diurnal heating will
bring a VFR cloud deck with some spotty light showers, though
no flight restrictions are expected.

Outlook...

Thu-Mon...VFR with no significant weather expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Teare