738
FXUS61 KCTP 300712
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
312 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure overhead will continue this chilly, fall-
like pattern with low humidity into at least middle of next
week. A cold front will bring some rain Thursday then return us
to below normal temperatures for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Lake effect clouds still percolate off of the eastern half of
LE, with the largest patch of clouds over far wrn NY and Warren
Co, PA. Fog can be seen filling in the colder northern valleys
as the air gets significantly colder than the river/creek water.
The fog will continue expanding through morning. Temp down to
38F at BFD which is the coldest spot of all, including
meso/backyard sites, at this moment (06Z). With the fog
starting, that sometimes ends up keeping frost from occurring as
the warmer water droplets thwart further cooling at some point.
However, the sky should stay clear enough to allow frosty spots
across the nrn mtns, particularly McKean and Potter Cos, where
the frost advy will continue.

After the frost and fog go away, it will be another late
September day (in August). The low RH will make it important to
keep well hydrated if you are doing outdoor activities like
being out under the sun with 100,000 of your friends. Temps will
be much milder in the NW vs Fri with less clouds overall (but
still some). In the SE, it might be a couple of degs cooler than
Fri without the aid of downslope warming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temps will start out just a deg or two milder on Sunday vs Sat
AM as the dewpoint does rise a little. Otherwise, it`s tough to
make a case that the temps won`t be exactly like Sat AM. For the
time, we`ll stay away from another frost advy going with the NBM
mins. There could be clouds linger in the NW or even see a small
patch of mid/high clouds move in overnight. So, for now, we`ll
continue to monitor for the need for another advy for Sun AM.

Sunday is another mostly sunny, dry, cool/mild day under the
1025mb high pressure dome. The cool air aloft will still allow
for some cu in the N and perhaps W, but not enough to mar a
mostly sunny forecast. Maxes will be another 3-5F milder than
Sat but with a light NE wind. That might help the dewpoints stay
at or even go below Sat aftn values, and make even lower RH.

Monday. Rinse and repeat. Cooler than normal morning with valley
fog. Add 1-3F onto Sunday maxes (and we get within a deg or two
F of normal). Could the E wind bring in ocean moisture and some
lower clouds? Yes, but it may be a bit early to go too high on
the sky cover since the big high will still be overhead with all
it`s dry air tough to dislodge.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The sfc high should fend off rainfall until the second half of
the upcoming week, perhaps as far as Thursday when a cold front
approaches from OH. A couple of showers will probably affect wrn
PA on Wed, but not get too far into the CWA. Low level
southeast flow could make for some pesky low clouds at times.
The passage of the cold front will usher in another large and
rather dry high pressure dome from Canada by way of the northern
plains.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds have already decreased early this morning and will
continue to be generally below 5 kts for the majority of the 06Z
TAF period. Recent satellite does indicate beginnings of valley
fog across northern Pennsylvania; however, impacts at any
airfields through 12Z Saturday appear unlikely. Widespread VFR
conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period as high
pressure continues to build into the region. Skies will be
mainly clear outside of scattered clouds downwind of Lake Erie.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...AM valley fog possible; otherwise predominantly VFR.

Wed...Isolated SHRA possible in the afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ005-006.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Bowen
AVIATION...Bauco/NPB