978
FXUS61 KCTP 040239
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
939 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2-week dry spell
coming to an end

2) Trending cooler this weekend with showers downwind of Lake
Erie

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2-week dry
spell coming to an end

Update...
Overnight temps look on track for the most part. Still expecting
some fog (or very low clouds), esp in the middle Susq and West
Branch along the rivers/creeks. Should dissipate 2-3 hrs after
sunrise.

Previous discussion...
Anomalous upper level ridging and south-southwest flow aloft
will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures through late week.
Max/Min temps will be 10 to 20 degrees above the historical
average for the first week of November, but should fall short of
daily records.

A vertically stacked and weakening surface low pressure system
will send a front through our area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. A band of rain showers will accompany this
surface feature with accumulations looking to remain under half
an inch. This cold frontal feature looks to stall near the
coast Thursday as it becomes more strung out.

An approaching shortwave through though will likely reinvigorate
precipitation development along the frontal system. The main
area of uncertainty is if this new area of precipitation will
impact much of our area. Global models have trended towards
keeping the bulk of this precipitation closer to the coast, but
some showers may still nudge into our southeastern area Thursday
night into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending cooler this weekend with some showers
downwind of Lake Erie

Update...
We may want to lower the NBM MaxTs, esp on Sat. 50% or better
chc of 8H temp <0C and lake effect clouds/showers will likely
keep it cooler than NBM mean currently in the forecast.

Previous discussion...
A compact shortwave moving through from the Great Lakes will
induce a pattern of cooler cyclonic WNW flow pattern this
weekend. This favors a pattern of lake effect showers off of
Lake Erie moving southeastward and cooler overall temperatures.
Latest model data favors this activity mostly on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current observations outline clear skies across the
Commonwealth which are likely to continue overnight through 12Z
Wednesday with high (~80-90%) confidence. These conditions will
promote valley fog potential, especially across eastern
Pennsylvania in the 06-12Z Wednesday timeframe. Recent REFS
guidance has continued to indicate that IPT will have the
highest probabilities (~70-80%) of fog formation, with MDT/LNS
also showing modest (~40-50%) probabilities of fog potential.
That being said, light winds continue at IPT and will need to
trend towards calm in order for this fog to manifest. Current
thinking based on NBM/REFS/GLAMP guidance is that winds will
taper off over the next couple of hours and allow for fog
formation. The main uncertainty with respect to the forecast is
duration of fog and how dense fog will be, so have given a
first-guess based off a combination of lower percentile members
of the REFS.

Fog likely mixes out between ~14-16Z Wednesday, with VFR
conditions likely to continue through 00Z Thursday with very
high (~80-90%) confidence. Mid-to-high level cloud deck will
continue to thicken based on HRRR model soundings ahead of an
approaching system; however, cloud bases will likely (~100%)
confidence remain above MVFR thresholds at BFD until after 00Z
Thursday. After 00Z Thursday, widespread restrictions are
plausible with rain showers and lowering ceilings at all of
central Pennsylvania`s airfields. After 00Z Thursday, there will
be a slight increase in the potential for LLWS as well given
the presence of a 40-50kt 850mb LLJ.

Outlook...

Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday and
continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more likely
in showers.

Fri-Sat...Scattered to isolated rain, cloudy conditions and sub
VFR ceilings possible.

Sun...Mainly VFR, isolated rain in NW PA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current Consecutive Days streak without measurable rain:

10/17 through 11/2 (17 days)
Harrisburg, Williamsport, Altoona, State College

10/18 through 11/2 (16 days)
Bradford, Johnstown

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Lambrech
KEY MESSAGES...Lambrech
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Lambrech
AVIATION...Beaty
CLIMATE...Steinbugl