174
FXUS61 KCTP 190527
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
127 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable with some showers through midweek followed by
more unsettled and cooler conditions over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonable with some showers through midweek
followed by more unsettled and cooler conditions over the
weekend

Crumbling cu into tonight setting up some valley fog formation
into early Wednesday morning. Cold front crossing Lake Erie
should be accompanied by rain showers into the northwest
Alleghenies early Wednesday. The front may touch off some
additional showers/isolated t-storm across the northwest 1/2 of
the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon. Another period of
rain should be focused across the southern portion of the CWA on
Thursday with some locally heavy downpours possible (new D3 WPC
ERO MRGL risk). The end of the week looks nice as high pressure
migrates over the Keystone state.

An upper trough carving out over the Great Lakes will result in
increasingly unsettled to potentially stormy wx conditions over
the weekend. This system will also deliver some relatively cooler
air both at the surface and aloft. This setup could prove
favorable for clusters of gusty t-storms with small hail. The
troughing pattern holds on into next week which favors temps
near to slightly below the historical average for late August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are favored at all TAF sites through the rest of
the night, though recent satellite imagery does show some patchy
valley fog beginning to form across northern PA. Mainly clear
skies and light winds should allow for the fog to continue to
expand, potentially getting close to BFD and IPT over the next
few hours.

A weak shortwave moving overhead during the day will bring the
chance for a few showers to the region. The wave will have
relatively little moisture to work with for this time of year,
so showers are expected to remain isolated to scattered at best.
BFD has the best chance for seeing rain, so the PROB30 has been
maintained there. Some guidance suggests that some rain could
make it to JST and UNV as well, but confidence in coverage is
too low to mention the potential in the TAFs for now. Winds
during the day tomorrow will be out of the west at 5 to 10 knots
with a few gusts to 15 knots possible, especially at BFD and JST.

Chances for fog are slightly higher Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as surface dew points begin to climb ahead of a
more energetic shortwave trough that will move through for
Thursday. Increasing mid and high clouds ahead of this feature
may mitigate the fog threat somewhat, so we will hold off on
introducing any visibility restrictions for now. Showers and
possibly a thunderstorm or two associated with this disturbance
will begin moving in from the west after 06Z.

Outlook...

Thu...Periods of showers and perhaps some t-storms focused
across the southern half of central PA.

Fri...AM fog, otherwise trending VFR.

Sat-Sun...Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms likely especially
on Sunday.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco