890
FXUS61 KCTP 110251
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1051 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Tweaked overnight PoPs with upstream convection inbound.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional storms are expected overnight.


2) Humid with rounds of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
focused over southwest Pennsylvania through midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Additional storms are expected overnight.

Big convective complex rolling through OH at 1030PM, and making
moves for SWrn PA. While our area will get clipped by these
storms, the stable low levels here should preclude severe wind.
Heavy rain is likely where they do fall. So, flash flooding may
be a threat for the latter half of tonight, but the majority of
guidance takes the most-organized and heaviest precip just
south of the CWA. NAM12 and RAP13 did well last night/early Mon
AM with the progression of storms then. Leaning on those
solutions right now yields a cluster of storms arriving in a few
hours over the SW and spreading N and E a bit before fizzling.

-----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Humid with rounds of heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms focused over southwest Pennsylvania through
midweek

Model trends are focusing primary risk for severe storms and
heavy rain across southwest PA on Tuesday. This area lies
closest to the equatorward edge of the westerlies within very
moist instability gradient. SPC and WPC have outlooked this
area (SW PA) with a a level 2/5 severe storm risk and 2/4
excessive rain risk.

Rounds of showers and storms remain possible through midweek.
Multiple shortwave disturbances will traverse the northern tier
and interact with a slow moving frontal zone. The combination
of rich low level moisture, instability and repeated forcing
along the boundary will support some potential for periodic
clusters of storms with locally heavy rainfall. WPC excessive
rain outlooks (EROs) have shifted farther to the south/west and
only clip the far southwest portion of the CWA on days 3-5 or
Wed-Fri.

The end of the week into the start of the weekend looks less
humid (more refreshing) as push of relatively cooler and drier
air accompanies seasonably strong/Canadian high pressure
building southeast from the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few showers linger in Central PA, but any isolated overnight
-RA is most likely from upslope effects at JST and BFD.

Conditions will waffle between MVFR and VFR this evening through
the overnight hours as low level moisture remains over the
area. Patchy -RA is possible over the higher elevation airfields
through the morning hours. Widespread fog development and IFR
visibilities is only confident at BFD. Elsewhere, low level
moisture content may be enough for some mist and some MVFR
visibilities, but confidence isn`t high enough for anything
lower at this time.

MVFR conditions continues into the morning with an improvement
to VFR in the later morning/early afternoon. Isolated to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible, but confidence
isn`t high enough for impacts at any one site yet, restrictions
are possible though. Storms moving in from the northwest may
cause restrictions towards the end of the forecast period at
JST and AOO.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Scattered showers/storms. Restrictions possible.

Fri...Mainly VFR. A few showers or storms possible over
southwestern PA.

Sat...Mainly VFR. Isolated shower/storms possible in the
afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambrech/Tyburski