499
FXUS61 KCTP 141810
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
210 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Remaining generally cloudy and humid with below normal daytime
  temperatures today through Monday. Periods of showers and
  locally heavy downpours for today and tonight.
* A strong warmup for Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs
  several degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
Light to moderate rain continues across much of Central PA early
this afternoon, though rainfall rates are lower than they were
this morning. The Flood Watch for the I-80 corridor has been
extended through 6 pm as much of the guidance suggests that
heavy rain that has develop along a boundary to our west may
make its way into Clearfield and Centre counties over the next
few hours and persist for a couple of hours.

As the best forcing associated with the upper trough moves away
from the region later this afternoon, the focus for heavy
rainfall will shift to southwest PA. Substantial clearing over
the Laurels has allowed for 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE to develop
and we are starting to see some signs of CI. Showers and
thunderstorms that develop in this area will do so in an
environment characterized by PWATs in the 1.6-1.8 range, warm
cloud depths of over 12000 feet, and weak shear. Any of these
storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates,
potentially leading to some flooding concerns. WPC has expanded
their slight risk for excessive rainfall into our forecast area
to cover this threat and we have expanded our Flood Watch as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The elevated frontal boundary will pivot to more of a
NW - SE orientation for tonight and Sunday, and become more
diffuse, which should lead to lower precip rates from less
widespread showers. Rainfall amounts in the 00-12Z Sunday
period should be under 0.25 inch for most places. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
some of the storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall.

By Monday, high pressure off of the east coast may try to build
westward into our area. This may keep the eastern half of our
forecast area relatively dry, though easterly flow will keep
plenty of low clouds around. Rain chances will stick around
farther to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is a daily chc of showers/storms through much of next week,
with the peak each day occurring during the afternoon/evening
hours. However, the week ahead will not be a complete wash out,
and there will be periods of dry weather mixed in.

The sfc flow will become more southerly on Tuesday and
southwesterly by Wed, allowing for a warming trend through
midweek. It will become fairly muggy as well, and heat indices
could top 90 degrees across the Lower Susq Valley Wed and Thu
aftn.

A cold front is progged to cross the region on Thursday,
accompanied by a higher PoPs and a better chc of
showers/storms. Decreasing PoPs and lower humidity are expected
behind this front to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread restrictions will continue throughout the TAF period
with periods of rain, reduced ceilings, and reduced vsbys.

Low-MVFR to IFR conds will be widespread this afternoon, with
periods of rain and possibly a few afternoon t-storms across the
southwest (JST/AOO). Confidence in storms is not high enough to
mention in TAFs, but the potential is there. A light easterly
flow (~5 kts) is expected for much of the region, although JST
may break into a light southwesterly flow.

Shower activity will diminish overnight. Low cigs will persist,
however, while cooling temperatures and plentiful low-level
moisture could lead to the development of fog tonight into
early Sunday.

Conditions will be very slow to improve on Sunday, with IFR
cigs persisting through at least midday areawide.

Outlook...

Mon-Wed...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, peaking
during the afternoon/evening hours each day.

Thu...A better chc of more numerous showers and storms with a
cold frontal passage.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ010>012-017>019-
045-046-049>053.
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ024>026-
033>035.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Bauco
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Bauco
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego