136
FXUS61 KCTP 041106
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
706 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No major changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost/freeze conditions are probable Monday night and
Tuesday night

2) Little to no rainfall forecast through Saturday, October
10th

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions are probable Monday night
and Tuesday night

The coldest air of the early Autumn season will push southeast
into Central PA early in the upcoming week with frost/freeze
conditions expected Monday night and Tuesday night over at least
the NW half of the CWA, with min temps around the freezing mark
across the Northern Tier counties of PA.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Little to no rainfall forecast through Saturday,
October 10th

Increasingly moist low-level southeasterly flow will bring
thickening/low clouds and a few periods of very light
rain/drizzle to areas along and east of the Allegheny Front and
south of Interstate 80 today into this evening.

Total rainfall is expected to be just a few to several hundredths
of an inch in most places that see rain today, with an outside
shot at up to 0.10 of an inch across portions of the Lower Susq
Valley, NE along the I-81 corridor (across the higher terrain
of Schuylkill County where llvl upslope flow will be maximized).
This will be the only precip for the next 7 days.

A secondary cold front followed by colder WNW flow could bring
a couple of showers downwind of Lake Erie tonight into early
Monday as lake/850 mb delta Ts will be 18-19 deg C.

A subtle subsidence inversion based at 7-9 KFT AGL Monday and
more notable inversion based at 5-6 kft agl Monday night,
relatively short fetch over Lake Erie and the lack of very cold
air aloft with cloud top temps of 0 to -5C will lead Lake-
Induced CAPE of up to 500 J/KG Monday and 300-400 J/KG Monday
night/Tue Morning. This will bring some thin/meandering bands
of SHRA that will extend into our NW zones at times.

Otherwise, we continue to have high confidence in a prolonged
dry stretch through next week as a large area of Canadian high
pressure dominates the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Southwesterly flow will continue streaming in today`s moisture
which will provide for restrictions to develop as the morning
progresses. This will mostly come in the form of low cloud decks
overspreading the region leading to mostly MVFR restrictions.
Have toned back some of the IFR mentions in this mornings set of
TAFs but kept it prevailing to some degree at AOO and IPT. This
airmass may provide some IFR continuing at JST anf coming into
UNV so may need to watch those sites for future mentions later
this morning/this afternoon.

Restrictions are likely to remain throughout Sunday with
southern terminals most likely to see drizzly/misty conditions
that may lower surface visibility. Removed -SHRA at JST and AOO
with latest thinking trending towards drizzly conditions rather
than full on showers. This is due to a weaker upper level
forcing mechanism and unimpressive PWATs should preclude a
heavier rain threat. Low clouds with widespread MVFR/IFR
restrictions are likely until a cold front passes through late
Sunday night/early Monday morning with drier air filtering
behind it.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu. VFR prevailing. Brief restrictions possible in late
night and early morning fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambrech