536
FXUS61 KCTP 262329
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
729 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Bumped up QPF in the southeast zones for Thursday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday
PM, along with a potential period of very heavy rain in the
Lower Susq Valley

2) Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse Thursday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
possible Thursday PM, along with a potential period of very
heavy rain in the Lower Susq Valley

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected Thursday
afternoon ahead of a cold front across CPA. SPC expanded the
level 2/5 severe t-storm risk southward to include the Lower
Susquehanna Valley. WPC upgraded the ERO to level 2/4 for areas
near and to the east of US-15. Short term model guidance
continues to highlight the eastern 1/3 of CPA with the most
favorable CAPE/shear profiles and highest pwats/slowest storm
motions. A predominantly multicellular storm mode is expected
with damaging winds the primary threat, however a few supercells
may also be possible. Southwest flow along a southwest-northeast
oriented slow moving cold front could yield multiple rounds of
training convection in the southeast, with rainfall totals
potentially topping 2 inches in spots. Higher FFGs could offset
the flash flood risk in the eastern zones to some extent, with
the most saturated soils and lowest FFG over the southwest
quadrant of the CWA. Subsequent shifts will continue to evaluate
the need for a flood watch in the southeast.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse
Thursday night

Forecast viewing conditions for the lunar eclipse range from
fair to poor Thursday night across central PA. The eclipse will
begin at 10:34 pm EDT and last for about 3 hours, ending at 1:52
am EDT Friday. The worst view is most likely over the eastern
half of CPA due to exiting storms and associated cloud cover.
The eclipse will take place during August`s full moon, commonly
referred to as the Sturgeon Moon. It will also be the last full
moon of the summer with the next full moon set to rise a few
nights after the autumnal (Fall) equinox on September 22nd.

A drying trend is forecast Friday through the last weekend of
August, thanks to high pressure building into the area behind
the cold front. This will likely setup a couple of foggy
mornings. Rainfall looks fairly limited heading into the first
week of September; however despite the start of meteorological
Fall the summer is not over with temps expected to rise above
the historical average into the 80-90 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are favored through the night, though some patchy
fog could form around BFD and IPT. There is also some potential
(< 30% chance) for MVFR ceilings to develop at MDT and LNS after
06Z as a warm front lifts northward into the morning. This
should also trigger scattered showers that will continue through
12Z. Showers and thunderstorms that have developed ahead of
a cold front over Ohio and Indiana are expected to weaken as
they move eastward overnight and coverage of any showers is
expected to be too low by the time they make it to Central PA to
include any mentions in the TAFs for western sites.

Most guidance shows numerous thunderstorms developing over the
region during the early afternoon as this cold front continues
to track eastward. PROB30s have been included for all airfields,
though the timing will have to be adjusted as confidence
increases. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong
wind gusts, potentially in excess of 40 knots, and very heavy
rainfall that may lead to brief periods of IFR visibility.

Outlook...

Fri...Fog and a few lingering showers in the morning, becoming
VFR for the afternoon.

Sat-Mon...AM Fog; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco