771
FXUS61 KCTP 141056
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
656 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry conditions with variable amounts of high based
stratocu and altocu clouds will persist through Saturday with
any precipitation chances confined to the southern tier of the
state.

2) Sunday will bring a return to wet conditions with showers
and thunderstorm chances returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Mainly dry conditions with variable amounts of
high based stratocu and altocu clouds will persist through
Saturday with any precipitation chances confined to the southern
tier of the state.

A northwesterly upper level jet core will extend from southern
Ontario to the New England Coast. As the right entrance region
of this jet drifts over western and southern Pennsylvania this
afternoon it will interact with a remnant MCV from convection
that is currently ongoing across Illinois and Indiana.

This area of more focused ascent should lead to another round
of clouds and some shower development in the southern tier of
the state later today.

Main timing looks to be from the late morning to mid-afternoon.
The ascent may allow for some spotty afternoon showers
elsewhere, but dry air filtering in from the north should keep
things fairly isolated.

In the wake of upper level features, drier air filters in from
the north and skies should start clearing this evening into
Saturday. Noticeably less humid conditions will accompany the
start of the weekend with any isolated rain chances looking to
remain in the southwest.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sunday will bring a return to wet conditions
with showers and thunderstorm chances returning.

A low pressure system moving through Canada will allow a stalled
frontal boundary to move through Pennsylvania as a warm front
on Sunday. This will bring a moist airmass, with PWATs possibly
exceeding 2" into Pennsylvania. With a secondary low likely
forming closer to Pennsylvania at the intersection of the warm
front and a trailing cold front, this will invigorate
development of showers and thunderstorms. With a cold front
draping across Pennsylvania Sunday night, multiple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms may be possible into the night.

As it stands right now, ensemble guidance has the northern tier
of Pennsylvania targeted for highest rain probabilities and
totals. Exact timing of this activity and how fast/slow the
cold front moves through will likely become clearer as we
approach Sunday. With such high PWATs and potential for multiple
rounds/training activity, flooding potential will need to be
watched. Should the cold front stall/move slower, activity may
linger into Monday morning. After that passage, the start of
next week is showing signs of high pressure moving over the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Patchy morning fog and low stratus (AOB 500 ft AGL) will mix
out soon after sunrise today, with VFR favored & light winds of
~5 kts through the rest of the TAF period. Intermittent MVFR
ceilings are possible this morning and early afternoon,
primarily at KJST/KAOO, as diurnal/upslope cumulus develop.

Some showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder will move into
the Laurel Highlands (mainly Somerset County) for late this
morning with up to a few tenths of an inch of rain likely as
the northern edge of an original Midwest MCS slides across that
part of the stat.

The latter half of this 12Z TAF period will feature high
pressure nosing in from Canada with a weak backdoor cold front
moving into Central and Northern PA. A northeasterly wind shift
is expected behind the front, which could reach KBFD/KIPT
around or after 00Z Saturday.


Winds may gust to around 15 kts with the frontal passage,
primarily if it moves through during the evening before the
boundary layer stabilizes, with lower wind gusts (5-10 kts) if
it moves through later into the night.

Outlook...

Sat...AM fog possible, then VFR. Warm front moves in and
SHRA/TSRA likely W Sat night.

Sun...Restrictions possible in showers/thunderstorms.

Mon...CFROPA by Monday morning. SHRA/TSRA ending Mon AM. Mainly
VFR for most of the day.

Tue...Mainly dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Martin/Lambrech
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Martin/Lambrech
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Martin/Lambrech
AVIATION...Lambert/Teare