175
FXUS61 KCTP 170012
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
812 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Gradually ending the severe tstm watch as the bow clears.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms should be almost done. Flash flooding
threat may persist, but is likely done, too.

2) High pressure yields a short dry window for late Monday
afternoon through Wednesday morning, before more storms arrive
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms should be almost done.
Flash flooding threat may persist, but is likely done, too.

The bow has hit the more-stable air over the Lower Susq Valley.
However, a few cells still bear watching. Will leave the Flash
Flood Watch up for the time being, probably until exp time (02Z)
as additional, but weaker, showers and thunderstorms move in
from OH. That convection will be moving into the CWA at an
unfavorable time - after sunset. But, they may continue as they
(spotty and not lasting too long) are until they get here. So,
we will keep on with the FFA, but the threat for flash flooding
has largely passed.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure yields a short dry window for late
Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning, before more storms
arrive Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

A cold front moves through Monday. Dewpoints don`t drop much at
all until later in the day Monday. So, there will still be
plenty of time on Monday for instability to develop and pop
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two during the daytime. By
sunset, these will be gone as dry air and loss of heating kill
them off. Dewpoints drop into the 50s for many Tuesday morning.
Large scale subsidence should yield a mostly sunny day, then.
Return flow Tuesday night and Wed will bring the humidity up and
a cold front will approach on Wednesday. Storms are expected
mainly in the Wed-Wed night timeframe, but speed of the CFROPA
will determine if all/part of Thursday will be dry. If showers
linger, they would be over the south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weakening line of showers and storms across the area until
mid to late evening.

Main issue overnight into at least early Monday afternoon
will be areas of low CIGS, fog, and some showers.

Improving to VFR conditions late Monday, which should hold
into Wednesday. Main issue Tuesday and Wednesday morning
will be the potential for patchy fog.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR most of the time. Chance of showers/tstm early
Monday.

Wed-Thu...Afternoon showers or a TSRA with brief restrictions
possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions.

Fri...Chance of showers across the south, otherwise dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin