513
FXUS61 KCTP 011033
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
633 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably warm start to October precedes weekend cooldown
and frost/freeze risk early next week

2) Not much rain expected for the first 10 days of October

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably warm start to October precedes
weekend cooldown and frost/freeze risk early next week

Late week warm spell fades into the first weekend of October.
Max temps are projected to peak 10-15 degrees above the
historical average today/tomorrow before trending seasonably
cooler over the weekend into next week. The cooldown will be
highlighted by frost potential across the western and central
Alleghenies Monday and Tuesday night with min temps near the
freezing mark across the northern tier.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Not much rain expected for the first 7-10 days
of October

We see 2-3 limited opportunities for rain over the next 7+ days
in CPA. The first is this morning over the northern tier where
observed precip has been largely negligible to barely measurable.
The second will occur on Friday as cold front slicing to the
southeast from the eastern Great Lakes triggers more widespread
light to moderate shower activity. The 3rd window for rain is
on Sunday focused mainly over the southern and eastern portions
of the CWA. High confidence in a dry stretch for much of next
week as large area of Canadian high pressure dominates the
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Light rain will continue at BFD and possible IPT for a few more
hours before gradually tapering off through the morning. Mainly
dry conditions are expected after 14Z under varying amounts of
mid and high clouds, along with west-southwest winds at 5 to 10
knots. A few gusts to 20 knots may be possible at BFD and JST
during the afternoon. Cloud cover increases once again into
Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Any rain
associated with this front likely holds off until right around
12Z Friday. LLWS will be a concern into Friday morning as a 40
to 60 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves in from the west.
Wind shear is most likely at BFD and JST, though AOO, UNV, and
IPT could may see LLWS develop after 06Z.

Some fog may form across northern PA tonight, though this is
dependent on just how clear skies are able to get before high
clouds move in ahead of the front. If fog were to develop, BFD
and IPT would be most likely to see ceiling and visibility
restrictions. Regardless of fog formation, IFR or LIFR ceilings
appear likely to  develop at BFD in the 10-12Z timeframe as
rain begins to move in.

Outlook...

Fri...Cold FROPA with showers along the front.

Sat...VFR favored behind the FROPA. AM fog possible.

Sun...Restrictions possible as a weak low pressure system
develops along the residual frontal boundary over the Mid-
Atlantic. -RA possible, more so across southern and eastern PA.

Mon...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing.

&&

.CLIMATE...
September 2026 precipitation rankings

IPT: 11th wettest (6.84")
MDT: 26th wettest (4.72")
AOO:  9th wettest (5.58")
BFD: 10th wettest (4.85")
JST:  3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000
STC:  6th wettest (7.90")

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl