461
FXUS61 KCTP 290801
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
401 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Improving conditions today with noticeable warmup to end
September and start October

2) Cooling trend this weekend into early next week with an
increasing chance of rain Saturday and Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Improving conditions today with noticeable
warmup to end September and start October

Dreary start today with widespread low clouds and patchy
fog/drizzle. Expect gradual improvement today with more clouds
than sun and max temps +5-10 degrees warmer vs. Monday in the
65-75F range.

More breaks in the clouds overnight will favor locally dense
valley fog formation with very low visibility restrictions into
early Wednesday morning.

Sizable warmup expected from mid to late week with fcst max
temps in the 75-85F range or +10-15 degrees above the historical
average for the end of September/beginning of October. For
context, the average last date of max temp >=80F is 9/27 at
State College, 9/29 at Altoona, 10/2 at Williamsport and 10/5 at
Harrisburg.

No rainfall is forecast through Thursday with some showers
possible on Friday-Friday night associated with cold front
sinking southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes.
---------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooling trend this weekend into early next week
with an increasing chance of rain Saturday and Sunday

24hr maxT change on Saturday behind the cold front is fcst to
be 10-15 degrees lower vs. Friday with highs in the low 60s/70s.
Trailing frontal wave could bring more widespread soaking rain
on Sunday based on WPC/NBM QPF - although EC/CMC and (to lesser
extent) lean farther to the south/east with the frontal precip.
Confidence is higher that temps continue to cool off and drop
near or below the historical average into early next week. Frost
potential is on the table for next Monday and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Still feeling the effects of the retreating Nor`easter with
light northwest winds and a sprawling cloud deck across the
region. Low clouds and fog will persist through the night,
leading to the potential for MVFR or IFR restrictions at all
TAF sites.

Expect a 1 category drop across the board tonight with IFR at
BFD and JST dropping to LIFR, AOO, UNV, and IPT dropping from
MVFR to IFR, and LNS and MDT dropping from VFR to MVFR. The
lowest ceilings/visibility will generally be between 06 and 13Z
with improvement areawide thereafter. VFR should prevail most
places by late afternoon, but MVFR may linger at BFD and JST.
Breaks in the clouds should promote fog formation Tuesday night
and some guidance is beginning to show the potential for fairly
widespread visibility restrictions into Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wed...Morning fog; then sunshine returns with mostly VFR
conditions.

Thu...Chance of showers late PM, some restrictions possible.

Fri...Cold FROPA with showers along the front.

Sat...Uncertainty abounds, rain/lower cigs possible south,
brighter/less restrictions north.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Soggy September Soaker...
September 2026 (MTD) precipitation rankings
IPT: 11th wettest (6.84")
MDT: 26th wettest (4.72")
AOO:  9th wettest (5.58")
BFD: 10th wettest (4.85")
JST:  3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000
STC:  6th wettest (7.90")

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl