302
FXUS61 KCTP 112313
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
713 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Excessive rainfall outlook shifted southwestward Thursday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Humid with additional showers/thunderstorms possible into
late week

2) Seasonably cooler and less humid Friday and Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Humid with additional showers/thunderstorms
possible into late week

Parade of convective complexes and associated cloud cover has
effectively shut off precip across western PA for the time
being. Farther to the east, widely scattered thunderstorm
development is expected through the rest of the afternoon with
an isolated threat for damaging wind gusts. More sunshine
beneath a cirrus canopy has driven temps into the mid 80s
supporting modestly steep low level lapse rates. Water loading
higher pwat air would also be supportive of localized
downbursts. This area will be monitored, but the probability of
a watch issuance is 5% per MCD #1928.

Confidence in how the precip pattern evolves from west to east
from the Ohio Valley later tonight remains quite low. This is
due in a large part to high variability in the CAM signals. We
will let the flood watch for Somerset County ride for now and
allow evening shift to assess radar/model trends. Patchy fog is
likely to form late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Uncertainty only grows with time through midweek. Slow moving
frontal boundary will continue risk of showers and heavy
thunderstorms through Thursday; however tomorrow (8/12) appears
to mark a nadir in both severe storm and flash flood risk.

-----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonably cooler and less humid Friday and
Saturday

Comfortably cooler and noticeably drier (less humid) air
accompanies seasonably strong/Canadian high pressure building
southeast from the Upper Midwest Friday night through Saturday.
Below normal pwats will facilitate pleasant days and crisp
nights (40s and 50s most locations Friday night/AM Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All TAF sites are reporting VFR as of 00Z. A few thundershowers
are moving accross the northern tier of PA currently, but
impacts to to sides remain roughly 30% over the northern TAF
sites. These storms should remain weak and dissapate with time.
VFR is expecte to continue for the next six hours.

Additional storms are possible overnight as the ring of fire
pattern remains active. Some fog is also possible overnight,
especially at BFD (50 pct chc) as well as low cigs esp at JST
(60 pct chc of IFR or lower). Conditions will trend towards VFR
areawide by early Wed afternoon, before isolated SHRA/TSRA
develop again.

Outlook...

Wed/Thu...Scattered showers/storms mainly across the southern
Tier of PA. Restrictions possible.

Fri...Mainly VFR. A few showers or storms possible over
southwestern PA.

Sat...Mainly VFR.

Sun...Restrictions poss in SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen