946
FXUS61 KCTP 021723
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1223 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Introduced a bit more in the way of valley fog for early
  Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably mild and dry weather will continue until late
Wednesday or Wednesday Night prior to a few periods of showers
preceding and accompanying a cold frontal passage. Cooler and a
return to mainly dry conditions will follow for Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild and dry weather will continue
until late Wednesday or Wednesday Night prior to a few periods
of showers preceding and accompanying a cold frontal passage.
Cooler and a return to mainly dry conditions will follow for
Friday through Sunday.

Latest satellite loop and regional obs showing lower-based
altocu advecting ENE across the western half of the CWA with
some light refl returns from virga near the Western edge of our
CWA.

09z temps in the upper 40s to low 50s were as much as 10-13 deg
F above normal across the SW zones where the cloud cover is the
thickest, while some periods of thin cirrus across the North and
East has allowed the mercury to into the upper 30s to low 40s
(4-5F above normal).

The close proximity of the large, 1032 MB surface high located
just east of KACY will keep winds light from the SE or South.

A sprinkle isn`t out of the question over the North tonight
- much like the very small and brief shower they had two nights
ago. We`ll keep the forecast at 0 PoP since there is no risk of
0.01" accumulating. That isn`t great news for northern PA where
BFD only accumulated 0.85" through all of Oct, and is currently
on a run of 14 straight days without measurable (0.01") rain.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region for the first
half of this week, helping to prolong our dry stretch and
keeping high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for much
of week followed by a moderate cooldown of 8-15 deg F in the
Thursday to Sunday period.

Highs in the lower 70s are in store for all but the higher
elevations on Wed.

Chances for widespread rainfall return for the second half of
the week. Very late Wed or Wed night is the earliest anyone
will see precip as a complex system develops over the middle of
the country. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the
evolution of the upper air pattern and phasing of energy aloft
that will decide the development and progression of this system.
The more weighted/favored (per WPC) ECMWF solution yields only
a brief 12-18hr window of precip as the cold front moves through
(longer in the eastern half of the CWA than over the west) Wed
night and Thurs. Cold air under a sharp trough could make the
first part of the weekend a little chilly and damp with
instability showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Good VFR with light wind continues today as high pressure
remains a stronghold over the eastern U.S. Cirrus clouds between
FL180-FL250 will have no impact on flight planning weather.
Toward the end of the forecast period, -SHRA may creep into
northwest PA so a VCSH was added to KBFD. Chances now remain
less than 20%.

Patchy valley/river fog is possible overnight but over two weeks
of dry air will help keep most of this at bay with the best
chance (20%) over the southeast region. The next chance for
impactful precipitation will arrive Wednesday night into
Thursday ahead of a low pressure system that is expected to
break this spell of dry weather from the last two weeks.

Outlook...

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday
and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more
likely in showers.

Fri-Sat...Scattered to isloated rain, cloudy conditions and sub
VFR ceilings possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Bowen/Tyburski