471
FXUS61 KCTP 221739
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1239 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Showers ending from northwest to southeast early today
* A weak shortwave trough passing by to our north on Sunday will
  bring gusty winds and the potential for light rain or snow
  showers across the northern tier Sunday afternoon with
  flurries lingering Sunday evening
* Mild pattern with rain prior to Thanksgiving turns decidedly
  colder with wind and lake effect snow possible on Thanksgiving
  and continuing into Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers will quickly taper off from northwest to southeast by
late morning or early afternoon.

Clouds will take some time to break, but expect some sun later
today.

Temperatures will be close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Fast flow across the northern states will keep things moving
the next few days.

In our neck of the woods, surface ridging will support a drying
trend later today. The clearing will support lows in the 20s by
Sunday morning.

An upper level trough pivoting through the Great Lakes may
deliver some rain/snow showers to the northern tier on Sunday.
We`ll also see westerly winds gust 25-35 mph late Sunday as
winds at the top of a well mixed BL increase to near 45 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday should feature a good amount of sunshine, as high
pressure builds into the area. Temperatures will be similar
to Sunday.

Showers will work into the area from west to east on Tuesday
and linger into Wednesday, as a cold front moves across the
area. Temperatures on Wednesday will be on the mild side to
start, but will fall during the aft.

Colder air wrapping around the system could produce some lake
effect snow in the northwest mountains starting on Thanksgiving
day, with some potential for more widespread snow showers making
their way down to Interstate 80 on Friday. Wind gusts in excess
of 30 mph are possible both Thursday and Friday.

Winds and POPS were adjusted up some from earlier fcst. This
based on a rather strong northwest flow of cold air over the
Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ceilings will continue to rise through the afternoon, with all
sites expected to be VFR by 00Z Sunday. Expect patchy fog to
form overnight as winds go calm and skies clear out, though
confidence on restrictions is low. Model soundings indicate that
the best potential for any vsby restrictions will be at MDT and
LNS.

High and mid clouds increase overnight ahead of a low pressure
system tracking well to our north. A warm from associated with
this system may bring a few snow showers to BFD prior to
sunrise, but the better chance for precip appears to be along
and behind the cold front which will move through during the
late morning/early afternoon. Winds will be gusty on Sunday
afternoon, particularly west of UNV. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots
appear likely, with a few gusts as high as 35 knots possible at
JST and AOO.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow
after sunset.

Thu...Breezy with SHSN for northwest PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Martin/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Martin/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco