113
FXUS61 KCTP 310226
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1026 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues into early
November before coming to an end by late next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues
into early November before coming to an end by late next week

Another very pleasant and comfortable weekend to close out
October (Halloween) and start November (ending daylight saving
time).

The latest model guidance continues to grow in agreement with
the progression of a CONUS-crossing upper trough eventually
reaching the eastern U.S. by the second half of next week.
Highest odds for rain are currently placed around Thursday
11/5. There also continues to be some indications that rich
Gulf moisture will be pulled northward along a well defined
north south oriented frontal zone accompanying the full
latitude upper trough which could result in moderate to heavy
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR should prevail through the weekend. Patchy valley fog
possible tonight in northwest PA with low (<30%) of restrictions
at KBFD, but not enough confidence to include in the latest TAF
package. Lighter winds into early next week with increasing
clouds through Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat-Wed...A.M. valley fog; otherwise VFR. Increasing chance of
rain from mid to late week.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Banghoff