578
FXUS61 KCTP 051856
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
256 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added mentions of frost to next Tues AM.
* Dried things out a little quicker Wed night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy with showers and thunderstorms moving through slowly
from NW to SE tonight and Wed.

2) Stratiform rain expected across central PA on Wed.


3) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze concerns
returning Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy with showers and thunderstorms moving
through slowly from NW to SE tonight and Wed.

A few taller SHRA did form on the old trough slipping into the
central mountains now. Expect enough instability to help one or
two to spark. More SHRA/TSRA are expected over the NWrn 5-6
counties this evening before stabilization makes it tougher to
sustain deep convection. SPC did increase the risk of svr wind
gusts to MRGL earlier today. The CAPE at/around BFD should be
rather skinny despite 40+KT of deep-layer shear. So, MRGL is
probably the right call. Plenty of boundaries to help kick off a
TSRA or two. One boundary seems to be developing over far NWrn
PA, but it is not likely a lake breeze as temps are just not
that much higher than the lake because of clouds and patchy
rain. Most of the showers will die down this evening before a
more-stratiform area of rain slides in from the NW. It could
still have some convective elements. If any heavier rain from
storms drops earlier, that additional rain could make isolated
minopr flooding. But, that risk is very low.

The wind is gusting into the 30s over the NW half and 20s SE,
and will continue to do so into the evening. Again,
stabilization should help stratify and decrease the gusts.

      -------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread stratiform rain expected across
central PA on Wed.

Wave of low pressure rides up the advancing cold front tonight
and slows things down. A good feed of moisture will spread rain
west to east across the CWA late tonight and Wed AM. The front
should clear the eastern counties later in the aftn Wed. Before
it does so, some convection may form ahead of it. But, a cap
around 10kft will try to suppress storms in the SE. Do not
expect the storms to become strong, moving east of the area in
the middle of the aftn. Some lingering SHRA are possible in the
late aftn/eve. Maxes will be 15F colder than today thanks to all
the clouds and rain.

      -------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze
concerns returning Thursday night

After the cold front pushes E and S of the CWA on Wed, the sky
may clear out well enough in the nrn mtns to allow the temps to
drop into the M30s. Some cloud cover is still possible, and
the wind is not totally calm until later at night/early Thurs
AM. Thus, there is the chc for frost there, but it`s not a slam
dunk. Thurs night/Fri AM looks better for frost. Most guidance
puts mins into the 30s over the NW half or more of the CWA Fri
AM, with less cloud cover than the night before. Not many pixels
of 32F or lower on the MinT grid, but a small (20%) risk is
there for someone to have a freeze across the NW. The risk for
frost is much more - around 70% for the Allegheny Plateau and
Laurel Highlands. So, we`ll need to consider frost advy as we
near that period. At this point, we`re not quite confident
enough for any frost/freeze products. We do have it mentioned in
the HWO, but may need to expand mentions. After two more weak
systems Fri - Sun, we get another cold night Mon night/Tues AM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
over northern PA through the rest of the afternoon, potentially
bringing brief restrictions to BFD and IPT. Most guidance keeps
these showers and storms away from any other airfields. Wind
gusts of 25 to 35 knots will continue into the evening before
tapering off overnight. LLWS will become a concern again at MDT
and LNS as winds between 1500 and 2000 feet will still be in the
40 to 45 knot range for much of the night.

Expect ceilings to lower from northwest to southeast through the
night and into Wednesday morning as rain expands southeastward
along a cold front. IFR ceilings will first develop at BFD
before expanding to JST and AOO by mid-morning. Both the LAMP
and the NBM would indicate that IFR ceilings will develop across
the rest of Central PA as well, but model RH profiles from both
the RAP and HRRR suggest that MVFR ceilings are more likely.
This is supported by the HREF as well, which only shows a 40 to
50 percent chance IFR ceilings impacting any other TAF sites.
Visibility will likely drop to MVFR as rain moves in, with
periods of IFR visibility possible. Scattered showers will
linger into the afternoon with continued MVFR or IFR ceilings.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...-SHRA possible, but trending drier.

Sat...Restrictions possible in rain.

Sun...Showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with
restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco