889
FXUS61 KCTP 291812
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
212 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Fire weather concerns Friday

2) Dry and mild conditions to start November

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Fire weather concerns Friday

It has been almost two weeks since measurable rainfall has been
observed across Central PA. A cold front will sweep through the
area from northwest to southeast overnight into Friday morning.
There will be a few light rain showers downwind of Lake Erie in
the northwest Alleghenies, but dry conditions are expected to
continue for most of the forecast area. Friday will be breezy
in the wake of the cold front with marginally low afternoon RH
values and max gusts forecast in the 20-30 mph range. These
conditions will likely result in an elevated risk of wildfire
spread Friday afternoon with PA Bureau of Forestry partners
indicating fuels are sufficiently dry/cured. Although relative
humidity values will remain low through the weekend, lighter
winds should limit the risk of rapid wildfire spread. Even
still, individuals should limit activities that could start a
fire. 99% of wildfires in Pennsylvania are caused by humans!

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry and mild conditions to start November

The latest model guidance indicates the lengthy dry and mild
spell will last through Halloween and into the first few days of
November. There continues to be a building signal toward an
appreciable rain and possible wind event during the second half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR continues into tonight. A cold front will sweep southeast
across the airspace late tonight and early Friday morning. The
front will likely trigger a few rain showers downwind of Lake
Erie reaching KBFD. Sub-VFR ceilings are most likely in the
favored upslope terrain impacting KBFD and KJST as sfc winds
shift from 230-260 to 280-310 degrees behind the front. A period
of LLWS is also possible ahead of the cold front. Wind gusts
20-25kts are forecast by Friday afternoon from 290-320 degrees
with MVFR/IFR cigs over the higher terrain improving to VFR.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...A.M. valley fog; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NOTE: October 29th is the anniversary of two historic weather
events to impact central Pennsylvania in the past 15 years:
Sandy in 2012 and the heavy/wet early season Snowstorm in 2011.

Daily record highs for 10/29:

MDT 79/1946 Harrisburg ASOS
IPT 77/1945 Williamsport ASOS
AOO 77/1971 Altoona ASOS
BFD 72/1999 Bradford ASOS
STC 74/1950 State College COOP (7AM-7AM)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Steinbugl