248
FXUS61 KCTP 061740
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
140 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* New details about the next chance for storms & gusty synoptic
  scale winds Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A nice end to the Labor Day weekend.

2) Uptick in heat and humidity for mid midweek.

3) Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A nice end to the Labor Day weekend.

A few clouds outside this afternoon, but a very dry airmass
is above about 850 mb, so no showers for a change after a wet
start to September.

In the wake of Saturday`s cold front, a refreshingly low
dewpoint airmass has settled in across Pennsylvania and will
ensure pleasant conditions through Labor Day.

High pressure will build overhead tonight, with calm winds,
clear skies, and antecedent moisture supporting widespread
valley fog development by Monday morning. Lows will range from
the mid 40s in the northwest mountains to mid 50s in the
southeast. No doubt a perfect night to open the windows!

After morning fog mixes out, Labor Day will be about as good as
it gets. A few wispy cirrus clouds will accentuate bright blue
skies with abundant sunshine, passing fair weather cumulus
clouds, and seasonable temperatures.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Uptick in heat and humidity for midweek.

As high pressure drifts southeast of PA by Wednesday,
a southwesterly flow will usher in warmer and a bit more
humid airmass for later Wednesday. Most of the day will be
dry.

Wind fields will be on the strong side, but dewpoints
stay below 70 degrees, and frontal timing is late Wednesday
night early Thursday, thus the risk of severe storms limited
at this point.

While temperatures will be above normal on Wednesday, nothing
like what we just had last week.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night
into Thursday.

By Wednesday night, a low pressure system will be moving across
northern Ontario with a cold front extending south through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. The pressure gradient
will support a notable uptick in synoptic scale winds Wednesday
night into Thursday. It`s been awhile since we`ve had widespread
gusty winds, but we`re getting into the time of year where such
a weather pattern becomes more common.

Gusty winds will ramp up Wednesday during the day out of the
southwest ahead of an approaching cold front, and continue
through Thursday afternoon shifting to a westerly direction
after the front passes. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph seem
realistic at this point, with the highest readings occurring at
higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands.

Highest POPS for showers and storms will be on Thursday,
as front moves into southern PA.

High pressure builds behind the cold front and the end of the
week/start of the weekend looks sunny and dry with low humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely to continue through 00Z Monday
outside of a broken 2500-3500 ft AGL cloud deck that is
currently traversing across central Pennsylvania. The bulk of
model guidance continues to keep all airfields VFR; however,
cannot rule out brief drops towards MVFR at AOO/UNV/MDT/LNS
over the next couple of hours. Any drops are expected to be
transient and could last less than an hour before VFR prevails
so have kept all airfields prevailing VFR. Clouds begin to clear
out near 00Z Monday, allowing for some fog potential across the
region overnight into Monday morning.

Strong signal for fog continues in much of model guidance this
afternoon; thus, increasing condifence in fog impacting some
subset of airfields across the region. Comparing 17Z
observations this afternoon compared to yesterday, more low-
level moisture is in place at BFD/UNV/IPT where dew point
depressions are slightly lower at AOO. Given this, have trended
up timing of potential fog formation at BFD/UNV/IPT while
trending backwards slightly at AOO. Lowest confidence of any fog
formation will be at LNS with current thinking that JST/MDT
remain VFR by Monday morning. That being said about all of the
fog mentions, there is a solution where dry air wins out and fog
potential across the area remains minimal but that appears to
be a lower confidence solution at this time. After 12Z Monday,
very high confidence in VFR conditions returning to the area by
14Z with those conditions likely to continue into the end of
the 18Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Tue...AM fog possible; otherwise predominantly VFR.

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible
across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

Fri...Primarily VFR conditions, some potential for afternoon
SHRA/TSRA but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Martin
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Martin
AVIATION...Bauco/Beaty