347
FXUS61 KCTP 150256
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1056 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Mentioned risk of smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota
  reducing air quality Wednesday night into Thursday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot temperatures and modest humidity will increase the risk
of heat impacts through midweek.

2) Smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota may reduce air
quality locally Wednesday night into Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot temperatures and modest humidity will
increase the risk of heat impacts through midweek.

No change to heat headlines for Wednesday. Max heat index peaks
in the 100-104 range Wednesday afternoon. This hot spell will
be shorter and less intense than the heat wave earlier this
month, as this airmass has spent the last several days over
Canada (vs the deep tropics).

Boundary layer mixing and noticeable WNW breeze favored
lowering dewpoints a couple degrees Wed afternoon. A weak cold
front dropping down from the north through the day Wed will
knock dewpoints down further, especially across the northern
tier. This front may also initiate a few widely scattered
thunderstorms, highest chance over eastern zones (SPC D2 SWO
MRGL risk focused over eastern PA clips Schuylkill and Lebanon
Co). Dry air and any reduction to insolation via wildfire smoke
will be limiting factors for convection.

As the short duration heat pattern breaks down, rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact CPA Friday PM
into the weekend. Temperatures will return to historical
averages for mid to late July into next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota may
reduce air quality locally Wednesday night into Thursday.

HRRR-Smoke guidance suggests smoke from upstream wildfires in
in Ontario and northern Minnesota may reduce air quality across
much of Pennsylvania Wednesday night into Thursday. The model
shows sfc level smoke concentrations rising sharply behind the
cold front Wed evening, and continuing to climb through the
overnight into Thursday morning. In addition to air quality
impacts, marginal visibility restrictions will be possible
where sfc smoke concentrations are highest. The smoke may also
make for a bright red sunset/sunrise Wed evening/Thu AM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect predominantly VFR conds through the TAF period, with
high clouds and some wildfire smoke aloft passing overhead.

Increasing confidence in LLWS of 35-40 kts between the sfc and
1500-2000 ft over much of the area overnight, and added it to
the appropriate TAF sites. The LLWS should gradually abate
around sunrise on Wednesday.

Cannot rule out an isolated SHRA/TSRA Wednesday afternoon, with
the highest probability (~15%) being across east-central PA.
Otherwise, we will see more of the same with hot and humid
conditions and some wildfire smoke aloft producing hazy skies.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri AM...Mainly VFR, with areas of late night/AM fog. Some
reduced visibility possible from smoke, with an isolated late-
day SHRA/TSRA possible.

Fri PM-Sun...Chance of showers and t-storms, mainly during
the afternoon and early evening hours on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high max temperatures July 14-16
_____________________________________________
SITE    |   7/14    |    7/15   |    7/16   |
---------------------------------------------
MDT     | 101/1954  |  99/2024  | 104/1988  |
---------------------------------------------
IPT     | 102/1936| 103/1995| 103/1988  |
---------------------------------------------
AOO     |  95/1954  |  98/1995  | 100/1988  |
---------------------------------------------
BFD     |  89/1979  |  88/2013  |  97/1988  |
---------------------------------------------
STCP1   |  93/1988  |  97/1887  | 102/1988  |
---------------------------------------------

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ019-026>028-045-
046-049>053-056>059.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ035-036-
063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Evanego
CLIMATE...Steinbugl