434
FXUS61 KCTP 152342
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
742 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor adjustments to temps tonight and dewpoints midweek
* Minor adjustments to POPs based on latest CAMs

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid conditions return into midweek with
highest odds for rain Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer and more humid conditions return into
midweek with highest odds for rain Thursday

Latest CAMs support a modest increase in POPs across the northern
tier of CPA late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Temps,
dewpoints, and precip probs trend higher on Wednesday and peak
on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary sinking southeast from the
Lower Great Lakes will interact with the warmer/higher dewpoint
air and trigger scattered showers and a few t-storms through
midweek. At this time, severe storms are not expected with only
a limited/marginal risk of locally heavy rainfall across the
western Alleghenies.

Confidence in a dry end to the week has increased as slightly
cooler and drier/lower pwat air arrives from the north behind
the aforementioned front. Precip trends from later in the
weekend into early next week are wetter on the margin for this
cycle and will need to monitor for potential +RA signal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally clear skies continue this evening with light winds. Do
not expect much in the way of reduced visibilites early
Wednesday morning as temperature / dewpoint spread will be much
larger than this morning on the heels of warm advection.

This warm advection (higher dewpoints) may touch off -SHRA later
tonight near the NY border. Hig resolution models waffle a bit
on this outcome so only mentioned a short period at KBFD later.

With the increase in humidity on Wednesday afternoon, and
surface temperatures making their way into the low to mid 80s,
can not rule out a later day -SHRA or -TSRA - especially north.
Confidence to place any ceiling or visibility restriction in at
the far end of the forecast package is minimal (<15%) at this
time, but I do expect precip to be included in the next
forecast package.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...Increasing SHRA/TSRA chances, mainly on Thu,
restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Tyburski