356
FXUS61 KCTP 291039
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
539 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Lake effect snow showers/flurries taper off by sunrise, giving
  way to a dry Saturday.
* A quick-hitting system will bring snow (north) and a wintry
  mix (south) late tonight and Sunday with a plowable snow
  likely across the norther tier of PA.
* A more widespread/significant winter storm is possible on
  Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure is beginning to build in early this morning,
currently centered over Virginia. A few lingering lake effect
clouds and flurries will end by daybreak Saturday. Subsidence
associated with rising heights should erode the low clouds
during the late morning and early afternoon, but high and mid
clouds ahead of our next weather maker will overspread the area
during the afternoon. The sun in the southeastern half of the
CWA will last thru a good part of the day.

Highs today will still be on the chilly side - ranging from the
low 30s in the northwest mountains to near 40 south and east of
the I-80/I-99 corridor. Despite the cool temperatures, light
winds and some sunshine make today an ideal day to get outdoor
holiday decorations hung up or last minute yardwork done if you
haven`t already (ideal relative to our upcoming stretch of
weather at least).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong low pressure system that is bringing significant
snowfall across the Midwest today will lift across the Great
Lakes on Sunday and drag precipitation across our region. Lift
ahead of that system will bring some warm advection snow to
western PA after dark. The majority of models and the meso
ensembles all make very little precip for the SE third of the
CWA on Sunday. What does manage to hit the ground there would
likely be a mix in the morning or plain rain from late AM on as
temps warm up thru the day. Light snow will be the predominant
precip type for the northern mtns. The best QPF is in the NW,
too. The first swipe at snow totals there could be near 3 inches
in our NW 5-6 counties, and near 2" in the NE. But, that would
be the worst of it as the air is very dry with little moisture
coming in from the Gulf. Very little signal for freezing rain
that lasts more than an hour, but it is worth mentioning inside
the broader collection of "wintry mix."

Opted not to issue Winter Weather Advisories yet with lingering
uncertainty owing to weak forcing and unimpressive moisture
profiles. Regardless, travel impacts are possible north of I-80
on Sunday morning into early afternoon. After a trailing
occluded/cold front sweeps through Sunday afternoon, west winds
will kick up with gusts 25 to 35mph likely. A few lake effect
snow showers are possible in northwest PA Sunday evening into
the first part of the night, with another inch or two of
accumulation possible. Precipitation will quickly taper off from
west to east late Sunday evening into early Monday as high
pressure builds in, so Monday should be dry (and not too
different from today/Saturday).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into the first week of December
as cold air in the middle of the country sets up a strong
baroclinic zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains
should keep cold air in place on the northern side of the
precipitation shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move
out of the Gulf. This system should move northeast around the
base of the aforementioned high pressure system, bringing
increasing moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday.

The system at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with
the lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow the advance
of the system. Despite the expected fast forward movement, a
deepening coastal low could still provide enough forcing
juxtaposed with favorable upper jet dynamics to produce
significant snowfall across the region. Snow looks to arrive
later Monday night and lift across the region during the day on
Monday. The eventual track and intensity of the low will have
big implications on observed snowfall totals and the northward
extent of any mix/rain scenarios.

The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid
equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%)
across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected
in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a
30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast
PA. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ continue to outline
probabilities <30% with a higher likelihood in northeast PA up
through coastal New England. If confidence increases in higher
amounts, Watches may be needed in the next 24-48 hours. At this
time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet
for most of the region. Continue to monitor the forecast in the
days ahead, especially if you have plans to travel.

Later in the week, high pressure will regain control of our
weather. Prevailing upper troughing brings high confidence in
continued below normal temperatures and a chilly start to
December. Low temperatures in the teens or single digits are
possible and our active storm pattern appears likely to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bands of snow showers over northern PA will continue to weaken
today. A few snow showers and flurries will be around the area
early on today. Conditions will trend toward VFR conditions
later today.

Winds shift to the southeast later this evening, as a warm
front moves toward western PA.

The leading edge of the snow will be across the west on
Sunday around 12Z, mainly at BFD and JST at that time.

The far southeast areas like MDT and LNS may not see pcpn
until later in the day on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun...Light rain/wintry mix developing from west to east;
restrictions possible. Precip may turn to rain across the south
during the day.

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely early on. MVFR likely. IFR
possible.

Tue...Snow possible, before a possible mix later in the day
across the south. Restrictions possible.

Wed...Trending drier, lingering snow across NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin