208
FXUS61 KCTP 210039
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
839 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The risk for heavy rain and severe weather has ended for this
  evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of dense fog possible tonight.

2) An unsettled weekend will be bookended by fair weather
Friday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of dense fog possible tonight.

Widespread rainfall today followed by clearing conditions,
diminishing winds, and high pressure building in tonight should
allow for formation of radiation fog primarily in the valleys.
Some of the fog may become locally dense with vis 1/4 mi or less
into early Friday morning. Any fog should dissipate by 8-10 AM
Fri.

------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: An unsettled weekend will be bookended by fair
weather Friday and early next week.

The cold front responsible for Thursday`s storms will drift
south on Friday but remain very close to the Mason-Dixon line.
As such we can`t rule out a spotty shower/t-storm in far
southern PA Friday afternoon. However, most locations will stay
dry and Friday looks like a pleasant day with plenty of sunshine.

An upper trough digging into the Great Lakes region will bring
unsettled weather conditions over the weekend. There is still
considerable uncertainty with timing, intensity, and coverage of
showers/storms, but it is not expected to be a washout for
anyone. This system will also deliver some relatively cooler air
both at the surface and aloft. This setup could prove favorable
for clusters of gusty t-storms with small hail both Saturday
and Sunday. The best chance for strong storms will be west of
I-99 on Saturday and then across eastern PA on Sunday as a cold
front pushes through the area.

In the wake of the cold front, the start of next week (and
perhaps even late Sunday afternoon/evening) look pleasant. A
decaying secondary cold front could bring some light showers
north of I-80 on Monday, but dry conditions prevail otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clearing skies (VFR) in the wake of regionwide rainfall earlier
today, along with winds trending light/variable as low pressure
moves off the New Jersey coastline, will promote radiation fog
across much of the area tonight. Confidence in fog is lower at
KMDT/KLNS where NW winds may remain elevated enough (~5 kts) to
limit fog development, though 6SM BR VCFG was added to account
for spotty fog development on HREF. Timing of fog in TAFs was
skewed toward 10th- 25th percentile HREF visibilities with
concerns that the LAMP may be too slow with fog onset / too
quick with fog dissipation given clear skies, calm winds, and
recent rainfall.

Morning fog will give way to plentiful sunshine with some high
clouds and E/NE winds of around 5 kts on Friday. Fair-weather
VFR cumulus may also develop, primarily near the departing
coastal low (mainly around and east of KMDT/KLNS).

Outlook...

Sat...Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms with low cigs
likely.

Sun...Restrictions likely early with showers/t-storms, followed
by possible improvement late in the day. Breezy west wind.

Mon-Tue...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions
return early next week.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Teare