Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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732 FXUS61 KCTP 020038 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 838 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Bumped clouds and PoPs up across the srn half of the area for much of tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Clouds and isolated light showers possible tonight, esp south. 2) Dry spell continues in advance of returning summer warmth. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Clouds and isolated light showers possible tonight, esp south. Clouds congesting due to convergence and increasing moisture in the 7-12kft layer. A couple of tiny showers have formed in SErn PA and trying to make actual precip. Trouble with that is the the bases are 7kft in the air and the light precip might evaporate before hitting the ground - esp because dewpoints are so low (40s). Despite this, it is worth mentioning a small PoP for the night for the southern half of the CWA. ------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry spell continues in advance of returning summer warmth. The recent stretch of dry weather continues this week as Canadian high pressure migrates southeast from Hudson Bay off the Carolina coast by the weekend. Only exception may be a stray sprinkle on Tue afternoon/evening as a weak upper wave rounds the west side of the trough to our east. Enjoy the comfortable to seasonally pleasant conditions with no rain forecast for another 5-6 days. A shift in the pattern will bring rising temperatures and humidity levels for late week with summer conditions returning into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb above early June climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread 80-90F readings fcst Friday through Sunday. An approaching cold front will bring an increasing chance for scattered showers/t-storms Saturday into Sunday (max POPs on Sunday), with rain chances continuing into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A deep storm off the east coast and a large area of high pressure across central Canada will keep a northerly flow of very dry air over the area into at least Thursday. Very little chance for fog tonight, thus expect VFR conditions to prevail through Wednesday. Some fair weather CU and high clouds at times. Winds will be light most of the time, but expect some gust later Tuesday morning into the afternoon, as the strong June sun heats the airmass up, and strong mixing occurs with the cold air aloft. Outlook... Wed-Fri...VFR with no significant weather. Any showers that develop Tue or Wed will be light and spotty. Any fog very limited. Sat...VFR favored with restrictions possible in -SHRA, mainly late. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Colbert AVIATION...Martin