010
FXUS61 KCTP 050828
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
328 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Continuing to trend temperatures lower on Saturday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-long dry
spell now over.

2) Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced rain showers
beneath upper level low

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-
long dry spell now over.

Anomalous upper level ridging and south-southwest flow aloft
will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures through late week.
Max/Min temps will be 10 to 20 degrees above the historical
average for the first week of November, but should fall short of
daily record highs (see climate section).

A leading frontal band of light rain moved through the area
overnight with some trailing scattered showers. Fcst rainfall
amounts are generally between a tenth and three tenths of an
inch through 00Z Fri with some locally higher amounts possible.
This officially ends the 2.5 weeks- long dry spell, which ranked
in the top 15 longest such streaks at most locations around
Central PA.

The front slows/stalls near the I95 corridor tonight. A dry slot may
keep most locations dry this afternoon into Friday following
the initial period of rain. A shortwave trough/closed H5 low
dropping southeast from the Great Lakes is expected to
reinvigorate precipitation along the nearly stationary frontal
zone on Friday which could clip the far southeast zones/Lower
Susquehanna Valley. Model trends have been shifting this rain
farther to the east/closer to the coast over the past few
cycles. After approaching 70F on Friday afternoon in the
southeast, temperatures will drop quickly Friday night as cooler
air filters in behind the cold front. Lows by Saturday morning
range from the mid 30s west of I-99 to the mid 40s in the
southeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced
rain showers beneath upper level low

Seasonably cooler/breezy pattern to start the first full
weekend of November. The passage of closed H5 low followed by
mean cyclonic flow favors persistent clouds and periods of lake
enhanced rain over the western and central Alleghenies on
Saturday. We were keen to manually adjust max temps a few
degrees lower on 11/7 to account for the cooler pattern shift
which looks to continue into early next week. If the current
forecast holds, it will be the first below average daytime high
in three weeks!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periods of light rain and lowering ceilings to MVFR and
possibly IFR this morning. Marginal LLWS ending 14-18Z from west
to east. Dry slot promotes a drying/improving trend by the
afternoon for most of the area; best odds for lingering rain and
sub-VFR ceilings over the far southeast airfields KMDT/KLNS
this evening into early tonight.

Outlook...

Fri...Showers and sub-VFR ceilings most likely over the western
airfields impacting KBFD and KJST.

Sat-Mon...Breezy with showers and sub-VFR ceilings possible
over the NW 1/2 of the airspace. Max gusts 20-25kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
1. Today will mark the end of the following Consecutive Days
streaks without measurable rain:

10/17 through 11/4 (19 days): Harrisburg, Williamsport,
Altoona, State College

10/18 through 11/4 (18 days): Johnstown

10/18 through 11/2 (16 days): Bradford


2. Daily record highs for 11/4 and 11/5:

Harrisburg           78/1994 | 79/1975
Williamsport         75/2003 | 77/1994
Altoona              77/2003 | 77/2015
Bradford     *TIED = 74/2015 | 76/2024
State College        78/2003 | 75/2015


3. The sun will set at 5PM on Saturday 11/7 in State College.
This will mark the beginning of a 2 month period during which
sunsets will occur before 5PM surrounding the Winter Solstice.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff