674
FXUS61 KCTP 081956
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
256 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Cold Weather Advisory issued for most of the area tonight
  into early Monday morning

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One more bitter cold night before frigid conditions ease for
the second week of February

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: One more bitter cold night before frigid
conditions ease for the second week of February

One of the coldest late January-early February periods on record
is [thankfully] about to come to an end. To cap it off, we will
have to endure one more bitter cold night/early Monday morning.

This time around, cold wx headlines are triggered based on a mix
of minimum air temperatures (west-central PA) and minimum wind
chills (east-central PA). The floor for min temps around KBFD
is in the -20 to -25F range based on traditional GFS/MAV MOS
guidance. We employed a hedged approach (blending base NBM with
5-10%tile and MAVMOS) taking into account some factors (clouds
or a light breeze) that may prevent "elite" radiational cooling
from playing out. That being said, we still felt leaning colder
was the best bet under clear skies/calm winds with snow on the
ground and 1030mb high settling right over NW PA by 12Z Monday.
Cold weather advisory is in effect from 10PM tonight to 9AM
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings will bounce between VFR and MVFR at KBFD and KJST
through the remainder of the afternoon with the rest of the
area good VFR. Expect all areas to go VFR early tonight. Winds
will diminish through the afternoon and evening in all locations
as high pressure builds into the region.

Skies will clear overnight but some signal in the high resolution
models of low level moisture settling in at KBFD and KJST later
tonight. Introduced a brief period of MVFR to IFR later
tonight in BR. Elsewhere, VFR remains through the end of the
forecast period.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...No sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Mixed precipitation possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
Monday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-
042-045-046-049>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Tyburski