543
FXUS61 KCTP 190544
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
144 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Showers almost over in the S.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Today & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again with severe
and flood risks returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Today & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again
with severe and flood risks returning.

Just a few SHRA remaining in the Laurels as the cold front drags
a little there. Otherwise, clearing is ensuing and some fog may
develop by morning. Low clouds will linger most of the night in
the N & W. These should dissipate quickly in the morning to
result in a mostly sunny and drying day. Dewpoints mid-aftn s/b
in the 50F N to u50s S. Low level smoke concentrations will
increase overnight from N-S per latest HRRR model smoke
forecast. But, the concentrations over the CWA will not be as
noticeable as Thursday and Friday. The numbers will be highest
over wrn PA, with hardly any smoke for ern PA.

Prev...
Additional bouts of rain/t-storms are possible into the
workweek. The first of which will be around Tuesday (Day4) as a
well-developed synoptic storm moves through the Great Lakes and
NE CONUS. SPC has been highlighting a 15% prob (equivalent to
SLGT risk, level 2/5) for Central PA. Forcing/support for this
medium range severe outlook appears fairly robust and would take
stock in this risk manifesting at shorter ranges. WPC is also
highlighting Tuesday for heavy rainfall and possible flooding
with the synoptic system generating multiple chances for rain
with high atmos moisture in place.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly below historical
averages through late week into month-end with some noticeably
cooler nights possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection has left the central Pennsylvania airspace, and
satellite imagery shows high clouds moving out and clearing.
With smoke and storms being ushered out along the cold front, a
mixed bag of restrictions remain across the region. Most sites
across the eastern half of our area remain VFR with smoke from
the wildfires finally exiting the region and only mid to high
level clouds remaining. Elsewhere, MVFR to IFR is present as
low ceilings persist across the Allegheny front and central PA.
Fog has also begun to develop anywhere clouds have cleared, with
many places being very moist near the surface due to recent
rain. The highest confidence for IFR fog will be at KJST and
KBFD.

These restrictions are expected to remain for the rest of the
early morning hours and just past daybreak on Sunday. Dryer
conditions will persist for the next two days behind the front,
and all airfields are expected to be VFR by 16Z today.

Outlook...

Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in showers/t-storms with cold
FROPA expected between Tuesday/Wednesday.

Thu...VFR Conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bowen