507
FXUS61 KCTP 102353
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
753 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Not as cold tonight with increasing clouds
* Mostly cloudy with periods of rain this weekend through
  Columbus Day; turning breezy in southeast PA
* Trending drier with seasonal temperatures Tue-Thu next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Somewhat tricky forecast tonight with the expectation of
increasing clouds late behind a moistening southeasterly low
level flow; but clearing this evening into early tonight could
allow temps to cool off a bit more than forecast. On balance,
not as cold as last night with min temps more in the 40-50F
range. Some patchy fog is possible in the central and northern
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Trending mostly cloudy to start the weekend with light
rain chances increasing Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Closed upper low near Lake Erie and higher moisture advection
over the Lower Susq favors max POPs/QPF in these areas through
00Z Sunday. Sfc ridge squeezed between the upper low and coastal
storm suggests low clouds and perhaps some fog or drizzle over
the interior counties by late in the day on Saturday.

QPF has trended lower over the weekend with delayed interaction
of the two systems. That said, we still anticipate periods of
beneficial rainfall through Sunday night. P-gradient with
coastal low off the Mid Atlantic coast will still bring breezy
conditions to the southeast zones with max gusts 25-35 mph
Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Breezy conditions and rain could last into early Tuesday
particularly over the eastern zones based on the latest model
guidance depicting a slower upper level pattern evolution.

Drying trend still expected Tuesday with mainly dry wx into the
second half of next week. Another push of seasonably colder air
appears poised to arrive by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly clear skies will be present for the first part of this
evening. Winds have calmed and are now mainly calm out of the
south east. A mid level stratus deck currently situated near
5000 ft AGL is building in across south eastern PA near KLNS.
These increasing clouds are mainly influenced by the deep
center of low pressure currently positioned off the coast of
South Carolina. As this low continues to track further north
clouds will increase overnight. Overall confidence is low in
widespread flight restrictions, but SREF probabilities indicate
some MVFR is possible early in the morning for a few hours near
sunrise across the airspace. The better chance for restrictions
to occur will be late tomorrow after 00Z Sunday.

Low level wind shear from a strengthening east-southeasterly low
level jet will develop late Sat evening across the Susq Valley
and points east. After midnight Saturday at KAOO, KUNV and KJST
could see IFR conditions develop as cloud decks lower.
Elsewhere, areas of LIFR CIGS and generally MVFR VSBYS will be
expected Sat night through Sunday with periods of rain, drizzle
and locally dense upslope fog/very low cigs on the east facing
slopes of the ridges.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon...widespread IFR Cigs and MVFR VSBYS with areas
of LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS and rain/wind potential increasing
particularly over the southeast airfields.

Tue...Continued breezy with rain ending/clouds breaking with
gradual improvement.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bowen