851
FXUS61 KCTP 110805
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
405 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mostly cloudy with periods of rain this weekend into Columbus
  Day; turning breezy in southeast PA
* Trending drier with seasonal temperatures Tue-Thu next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog forming in the W Branch and a few of the other normal spots
early this morning. A couple of patches of lower clouds are
sliding in from the S/SE, and we expect them to expand slightly
through the day. The upper low moving down from the Upper Great
Lakes and the northward progress of the coastal low will put us
in a squeeze play of clouds today. Light precip will follow as
the clouds get thicker and the upper low provides instability
and broad lift. The NW zones will probably have some very light
just before noon and, by late aftn, much of the SE will have
some light rain. The SW will likely stay sunniest the longest.
Wind becomes decidedly easterly, but not strong/gusty today.
Temps will be 3-8F milder today (60s) vs Fri with the greatest
upswing over the Laurels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The rain squeezes into the central mtns early this evening. The
moisture from the ESE will meet up with the advancing upper low
and could develop some taller SHRA. Have left out mentions of T
at this point, since the melding doesn`t happen until
evening/early night when diurnal stability is increasing. Still
a strike or two is not out of the question. Precip is expected
to be heaviest in the central and NErn mtns. Those SHRA may drop
up to an inch of rain before they drift to the west a little.
FFG is super high and without deep convection, no flooding
worries exist. But, the rain doesn`t get all that far to the
west overnight, fizzling as it get into the far wrn mtns. The
morning on Sunday looks largely dry. A second wave of forcing
from the SE/coastal low swings into PA later Sunday. Lift and
moisture remain favorable for Sun night and Monday with several
rounds of RA/SHRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not noticing any changes in the long term after the rain ends on
Monday night or very early Tues as the coastal low slides east
and into the deep ocean. However, one minor blip in the dry
forecast for the rest of the week is a moisture-starved cold
front slated to arrive Tues night/Wed. NBM PoPs are 20-30 pct
across the N, but dry elsewhere. Without much moisture, we`ll
likely see this trend drier/lower PoPs over the next couple of
days. The cold air behind the front will not be as cold as what
we`ve seen the past couple of days.

Prev...
Breezy conditions and rain could last into early Tuesday
particularly over the eastern zones based on the latest model
guidance depicting a slower upper level pattern evolution.

Drying trend still expected Tuesday with mainly dry wx into the
second half of next week. Another push of seasonably colder air
appears poised to arrive by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly clear skies will be present for the first part of this
evening. Winds have calmed and are now mainly calm out of the
south east. A mid level stratus deck currently situated near
5000 ft AGL is building in across south eastern PA near KLNS.
These increasing clouds are mainly influenced by the deep
center of low pressure currently positioned off the coast of
South Carolina. As this low continues to track further north
clouds will increase overnight. Overall confidence is low in
widespread flight restrictions, but SREF probabilities indicate
some MVFR is possible early in the morning for a few hours near
sunrise across the airspace. The better chance for restrictions
to occur will be late tomorrow after 00Z Sunday.

Low level wind shear from a strengthening east-southeasterly low
level jet will develop late Sat evening across the Susq Valley
and points east. After midnight Saturday at KAOO, KUNV and KJST
could see IFR conditions develop as cloud decks lower.
Elsewhere, areas of LIFR CIGS and generally MVFR VSBYS will be
expected Sat night through Sunday with periods of rain, drizzle
and locally dense upslope fog/very low cigs on the east facing
slopes of the ridges.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon...widespread IFR Cigs and MVFR VSBYS with areas
of LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS and rain/wind potential increasing
particularly over the southeast airfields.

Tue...Continued breezy with rain ending/clouds breaking with
gradual improvement.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bowen