479
FXUS61 KCTP 010808
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
308 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Our lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues until the
second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Our lengthy run of dry and mild weather
continues until the second half of the week.

Mid and high clouds already cover most of PA, but there are some
thinner patches. Clouds aren`t any lower than 9kft. This should
remain the case for today with almost no low clouds/cu. However,
more moisture is brought into the area from the southwest on
Monday. A sprinkle isn`t out of the question over the N Monday
night - much like the very small and brief shower they had two
nights ago. We`ll keep the forecast at 0 PoP since there is no
risk of 0.01" accumulating. That isn`t great news for northern
PA where BFD only accumulated 0.85" through all of Oct, and is
currently on a run of 14 straight days without measurable
(0.01") rain.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region for the first
half of the week, helping to prolong our dry stretch and keeping
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for much of
week. Highs in the lower 70s are in store for all but the higher
elevations on Wed.

Chances for widespread rainfall return for the second half of
the week. Wed night is the earliest anyone will see precip as a
complex system develops over the middle of the country. There
is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the
upper air pattern and phasing of energy aloft that will decide
the development and progression of this system. The more
weighted/favored (per WPC) ECMWF solution yields only a brief
12-18hr window of precip as the cold front moves through (longer
in the eastern half of the CWA than over the west) Wed night
and Thurs. Cold air under a sharp trough could make the first
part of the weekend a little chilly and damp with instability
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are virtually certain through 00Z Monday, with
the only chance for sub-VFR conditions coming in the 09-13Z
timeframe today across the Susquehanna river valley airfields
(IPT/MDT/LNS). At this time, restrictions continue to be most
likely in the form of fog/low stratus given some potential for
breaks in the high level cloud deck and/or slower eastward
progression of the cloud deck. HREF ensemble probabilities
continue to outline highest chances (~20-30%) at IPT/LNS, with
GLAMP also outlining ~10-20% probabilities of this scenario
unfolding overnight. The main concern is that fog would have to
contend with some low level dry air based on RAP model
soundings. Based on this, have continued to hold stout with VCFG
mentions with lower-level scattered cloud decks at IPT in the
timeframe where restrictions will be possible.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday
and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more
likely in showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty/Tyburski