614
FXUS61 KCTP 070003
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
803 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* New details about the next chance for storms & gusty synoptic
  scale winds Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A nice end to the Labor Day weekend.

2) Uptick in heat and humidity for mid midweek.

3) Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A nice end to the Labor Day weekend.

A refreshingly low dewpoint airmass has settled in across
Pennsylvania and will ensure comfortably cool temperatures
tonight and pleasant conditions for Labor Day outdoor
activities.

High pressure will build over the region tonight leading to
clear skies, calm wind and quite cool temperatures.

A large temperature difference between the air, and still warm
waters of the rivers and lakes, will support widespread valley
fog development by early Monday morning.

Lows will range from the mid 40s in the northwest mountains to
mid 50s in the southeast. No doubt a perfect night to open the
windows!

After morning valley fog mixes out, Labor Day will feature
weather conditions be about as good as it gets. A few wispy
cirrus clouds will accentuate bright blue skies with abundant
sunshine, passing fair weather cumulus clouds, and seasonable
temperatures.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Uptick in heat and humidity for midweek.

As high pressure drifts southeast of PA by Wednesday,
a southwesterly flow will usher in warmer and a bit more
humid airmass for later Wednesday. Most of the day will be
dry.

Wind fields will be on the strong side, but dewpoints
stay below 70 degrees, and frontal timing is late Wednesday
night early Thursday, thus the risk of severe storms limited
at this point.

While temperatures will be above normal on Wednesday, nothing
like what we just had last week.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night
into Thursday.

By Wednesday night, a low pressure system will be moving across
northern Ontario with a cold front extending south through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. The pressure gradient
will support a notable uptick in synoptic scale winds Wednesday
night into Thursday. It`s been awhile since we`ve had widespread
gusty winds, but we`re getting into the time of year where such
a weather pattern becomes more common.

Gusty winds will ramp up Wednesday during the day out of the
southwest ahead of an approaching cold front, and continue
through Thursday afternoon shifting to a westerly direction
after the front passes. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph seem
realistic at this point, with the highest readings occurring at
higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands.

Highest POPS for showers and storms will be on Thursday,
as front moves into southern PA.

High pressure builds behind the cold front and the end of the
week/start of the weekend looks sunny and dry with low humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through at least the first half of
tonight with a very light north to northeast breeze going calm
at most airfields by shortly after midnight.

A strong signal for fog continues in much of model guidance
this evening; thus, increasing confidence in fog impacting some
subset of airfields across the region.

Best chance for fog and a 2-3 hour period of LIFR/VLIFR
conditions will be at BFD/UNV/IPT while a briefer period of
fog is expected at AOO.

The lowest confidence of any fog formation will be at LNS with
current thinking that JST/MDT remain VFR by Monday morning. That
being said about all of the fog mentions, there is a solution
where dry air wins out and fog potential across the area remains
minimal but that appears to be a lower confidence solution at
this time.

Widespread VFR will return to the area by 13-14Z Monday with
those conditions continuing through the end of the 00Z TAF
package.

Outlook...

Tue...AM valley fog possible; otherwise predominantly VFR.

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible
across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

Fri...Primarily VFR conditions, some potential for afternoon
SHRA/TSRA but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Martin
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Beaty