154
FXUS61 KCTP 150243
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1043 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid through Friday, before a
  gradual return to more normal mid summer temperatures and
  humidity over the weekend and into next week.
* Afternoon and evening focused showers and thunderstorms are
  expected into the early evening hours.
* Flooding possible almost anywhere east of State College and
  Altoona before midnight.
* Tuesday still looks like the driest day of the next seven with
  a brief visit from high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Atmosphere is gradually drying out (for the time being) with low
level water vapor imagery showing good drying spreading over the
NW two-thirds of the state  and high, rear-stratiform clouds
covering the region east of the Susq Valley with deep convection
tracking SE of the I-95 corridor.

A weak and slow-moving sfc cfront over the NW Mtns will drift to
southern PA, allowing slightly drier to filter into the region
overnight with dewpoints dipping a few to several deg F - into
the mid and upper 60s across the northern half of the state, but
holding in the low 70s across the Lower Susq Valley.

Although there are a few small showers along the cold front
across northern PA at 0230Z, the chance for any one location
seeing measurable rainfall overnight will be generally AOB 15
percent.

We`ll be keeping a watchful eye on the formation of fog
late tonight/early Tuesday under a very weak llvl pressure
gradient, with light wind and a period of clearing skies.

Widespread fog is noted in our weather type grids overnight. A
dense fog advy appears likely, but we`ll wait for the fog to
show it`s hand for that to be posted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday appears dry for much of the CWA. However, the high
pressure advancing from the NW is not strong at all, and the
southern border will still be at risk for sct SHRA/TSRA in the
afternoon. Virtually no risk of wind/hail tmrw, but still a
SLGT risk of excessive rainfall. The locations that have thus
far (330 PM) received the most rain/worst flooding have a very
low chc of rainfall. However, Lancaster Co will be a close call
for additional rainfall over the area getting too much right
now.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest hires guidance/12Z HREF 3hr PMM shifts heavy rain threat
to the south of the MD line for Tuesday afternoon. This should
result in a reduced ERO risk with later updates from WPC. The
flash flood risk ramps back up on Wednesday with the return of
deep moisture/forcing after the reprieve on Tuesday. The
remainder of the week looks seasonably warm/humid with daily
rounds of scattered convection during the afternoon and evening.
Heat risk peaks in the major category on Thursday afternoon with
max HX values peaking around between 98-102F in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley. There still appears to be a minimum in POPs
on Saturday with more unsettled wx Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clearing skies with initially VFR conditions should steadily go
downhill through MVFR and likely settle into the IFR/LIFR range
for several hours leading up to sunrise Tuesday with fairly
widespread fog forming - thanks to light wind, relatively high
dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s and moist ground from the recent
rain.

Conditions will gradually improve back to widespread VFR by 16Z
Tuesday and the chance for a few afternoon showers or a
thunderstorm (with brief MVFR conditions) will be confined to
the southern third of the state, in close proximity to a stalled
out frontal boundary (that will be pushing south across the
state tonight).

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct PM TSRA poss, mainly south.

Thurs-Fri...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Dangelo