345
FXUS65 KCYS 102122
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
222 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and quiet weather expected for much of the week.
  Locally strong winds expected for the southeast Wyoming wind
  prone areas late Monday and into Tuesday.

- Warming trend Monday through Wednesday with high temperatures
  returning to the upper 50s to upper 60s.

- A trough will move into the area later this weekend with
  chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 218 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

The forecast remains on track for a high wind event in the
southeast Wyoming wind prones this evening through Tuesday
morning. Current observations already show winds picking up
around Arlington and the South Laramie Range with gusts over 50
MPH. The gusts will continue to increase in frequency and
magnitude as an approaching upper-level disturbance from the
northwest strengthens MSLP gradients. Both 850 and 700 mb CAG to
CPR height gradients have also strengthened, increasing the
likelihood of high winds overnight. In response, winds aloft
will increase, maxing out at about 60 kts overnight. Strong
subsidence is evident over the wind prones so these winds should
not have any problems making it down to the surface. A strong
mountain wave signature is also seen in a cross section over the
South Laramie Range of the omega field and potential
temperature. Based on these variables and in-house guidance, the
strongest winds will likely be between 8 PM tonight and 8 AM
Tuesday morning. High Wind Warnings kick in this evening and
continue overnight. Wind gusts between 60 and 70 MPH will be
possible at Arlington, Bordeaux, and the South Laramie Range and
foothills.

High winds will likely linger through the morning hours on
Tuesday as gradients remain steep. Winds will weaken with high
wind headlines coming offline early in the afternoon as a "cool"
front associated with the upper-level disturbance moves across
the CWA from the northwest. This weak front will cause gradients
to relax, thus decreasing winds through the afternoon hours on
Tuesday. Despite the "cool" front, temperatures on Tuesday will
be roughly the same as today, with above average highs in the
50s and 60s. This is likely in part due to downsloping winds
keeping conditions on the mild side. The CWA will still be under
the influence of an upper-level ridge so dry conditions are
expected during the day and into the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A quick look in the extended shows a fairly tame forecast. An
upper-level ridge will be in place over most of western CONUS
through the end of the work week. This will ensure that warm and
dry air stays locked over the region at least through Friday.
Above average high temperatures in the 50s and 60s can be
expected, with perhaps a few 70s making it into the Nebraska
panhandle. Subsidence under the ridge will keep precipitation at
bay through at least Thursday, and perhaps even Friday.
Deterministic models show a strong cut-off low pressure system
moving through Arizona and New Mexico this weekend. The far
south placement of the low has deterministic models showing
little to no precipitation in the CWA this weekend. As a result,
lowered PoPs below NBM guidance, but still kept higher PoPs in
the Snowy and Sierra Madres to account for some orographic lift
and mid-level moisture. Although confidence in precipitation is
low for the weekend, confidence is high for cooler temperatures.
A trough will still move across the region over the weekend,
ushering in cooler air aloft. However, the air aloft does not
appear to be that cold, so temperatures over the weekend will
likely still be around average for mid-November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1031 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Main aviation concern for this TAF period will be strong gusty
winds this afternoon and overnight at southeast Wyoming
terminals. Winds will pick up overnight at the surface and
aloft, which could lead to areas of LLWS in both Wyoming and the
Nebraska panhandle. High clouds are expected throughout the day
and overnight, but should not cause any impacts. VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Tuesday
     for WYZ106-116-117.
     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...SF