368
FXUS65 KCYS 031729
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1029 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy, mild, and dry conditions expected through the beginning
  of the week due to a zonal flow pattern.

- Elevated fire conditions on Tuesday prompting a fire weather
  watch

- Seasonably warm and dry conditions expected through the middle
  of the week, but mountain precipitation and high winds return
  by the end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

A low amplitude ridge has set up over the Western portion of the
United States. There`s an upper level low that is making its way
from the California/Nevada border and pushing into the Rocky
mountains. This will send a shortwave through the Intermountain West
riding along the periphery of the ridge. This will lead to winds
being rather breezy in the afternoon with some high based clouds
pushing through our forecast area. High temperatures are expected to
remain in the 50`s and 60`s. During the overnight hours our gradient
will tighten up the pressure gradient over Southeast Wyoming. This
will increase the breezy to gusty winds overnight. The 700mb
gradient will also tighten creating a 700mb jet between 50 and 55
knots to keep us rather gusty in our wind prone areas. Our in-house
algorithm keeps a 40 percent chance for elevated winds and a brief
chance for high winds to occur. Given that the jet is only around 50-
55kts, A stronger jet is typically favored to sustain those high
winds over our wind prone areas like Arlington and Bordeaux. There
is an outside chance for a rogue gust to exceed 58 mph along I-80
between Rawlins and Laramie but it wouldn`t last long enough to
warrant a high wind warning in the overnight hours when the
subsident flow is the strongest.

Tuesday, The winds will gradually start to weaken throughout the day
as the pressure gradient relaxes again. Due to the westerly
downsloping flow on Tuesday, RH values will be dropping into the
teens as our dry layer regains control of our region. A fire weather
watch was drawn up for the Nebraska Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. All
the ingredients for elevated fire weather are there but the fuel
status for that area isn`t quite certain. RH values will also drop
into the teens for the areas east of I-25 however the fuels were
reported as not as receptive to burning conditions so the Fire watch
was not hoisted for any of the Wyoming counties. Adding confidence
to the dry forecast, SPC also placed an elevated risk for Fire
weather over our forecast area. Temperatures will also remain
slightly above average on Tuesday due to the downsloping winds
keeping us in the 60`s and 70`s for another beautiful day.&&

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

The long term can be classified as one thing: breezy. A
shortwave trough will pass across the region into Wednesday,
cooling the CWA a few degrees while also bringing breezy, but
not high wind worthy, gusts. This changes Thursday into the
weekend though as a deep trough pushes the ridge out of our
region, bringing a jet that will settle over our area and allow
for several days of strong winds with multiple days of high wind
warnings likely. Winds at 700mb in excess of 50 knots linger
from Thursday through Saturday as flow shifts westerly to
northwesterly, with periods of lulls in there but spaced close
enough that a long-duration high wind product may be needed.
In-house guidance also paints the picture of this high wind
event for the later part of the week, and with model consistency
on this potential, have continued to enhance the forecast winds
by upping closer to the NBM 90th percentile. As this upper
system passes across, we should see a small jump in moisture,
but without a stout forcing mechanism, the bulk of any
precipitation will be limited to the mountains and high terrain
in the form of orographically enhanced precipitation, with
mountain snow and a rain/snow mix for adjacent plains and
valleys, but overall amounts limited at best with no significant
accumulation totals anticipated. Finally temperatures under
this pattern will begin near normal for locations west of the
Laramie Range and around 5 to 7 degrees above normal to the
east, cooling Friday into Saturday and bringing our highs
widespread near normal to end the period in the widespread high
40`s to mid 50`s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1028 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

A shortwave moving across Wyoming has brought increased high level
cloud cover to the area. Due to this, conditions are expected to
remain VFR through the TAF period. The main aviation concern
continues to be gusty winds, with wind gusts over 25 kts
expected at most terminals this afternoon and evening. LLWS
could also be possible overnight as strong winds develop aloft.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NEZ434>437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SF