794
FXUS65 KCYS 032325
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier conditions expected through much of this week with warm
  temperatures continuing through Thursday.

- A warming trend will develop for the Friday through Wednesday
  period, with almost daily chances for isolated to scattered
  late day showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A back door cold front will stall along the Laramie Range later this
evening to keep temperatures in the low 50`s across the forecast
area for the overnight area. Due to our north-northwest flow some
high based smoke will be present and at times might be able to smell
it. However, The HRRR smoke model doesn`t bring a lot of smoke to
the surface so no Air quality concerns are expected. Winds are still
expected to gusty tomorrow but no high wind products are expected to
be issued. For thursday, A weak surface low travels across the
southern portion of the CWA to develop some late afternoon to early
evening showers. Some of the Hi-res guidance have these weak showers
lasting through the overnight period but others also have them done
by 06z or midnight. The Href puts about 100 joules through the
overnight hours across the southern portion of our CWA. This is
enough energy for rain to develop and maybe some lightning. Overall
not a whole lot of rain is expected and some areas may still be dry
due to the rain evaporating before reaching the ground.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Friday...Cooler and more stable airmass works in in the wake of a
cold front on northwest flow aloft. However, there may be enough
residual moisture and instability to produce isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms for the southern Snowy Range and southern
Laramie Valley, otherwise dry. 700 mb temperatures near 5 Celsius
will yield maximum temperatures from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday...Northwest flow aloft continues with a slow warming trend
as 700 mb temperatures rise to near 7 Celsius. Looks like enough
residual moisture over the southern Snowy Range and southern
Laramie Valley for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...As ridging aloft develops over our counties, return
southeast low level flow develops, advecting low and mid level
moisture across our counties, and producing scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms, most numerous west of I-25. The
warming trend continues with 700 mb temperatures near 9 Celsius.

Monday...The warming trend continues with low amplitude ridging
aloft and 700 mb temperatures rising to near 13 Celsius. Adequate
low and mid level moisture for isolated to scattered late day
showers and thunderstorms mainly west of I-25.

Tuesday...As the ridge aloft transitions over the Central Plains
states and our flow aloft turns southwest, temperatures will remain
about the same. Enough low and mid level moisture for isolated to
widely scattered late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of
I-25.

Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft strengthens, and with warm
temperatures aloft providing convective inhibition, only isolated
late day showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly west of
I-25. High temperatures about the same as on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Northwest flow aloft will continue, while a Canadian origin cold
front enters the area Thursday afternoon.

Clear skies will prevail. Winds will gust to 25 knots at the
Wyoming terminals until 02Z, then will gust to 32 knots at the
Wyoming and Nebraska terminals after 15Z Thursday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN