334
FXUS65 KCYS 041725
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1025 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures and mostly dry conditions are
  expected through the rest of the work week.

- Warmer temperatures are expected to return this weekend with
  largely dry weather continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Mostly clear skies and light winds early this morning are helping to
get our Wednesday off to a chilly start, with most locations below
freezing. We still have some lingering humidity after Monday`s storm
system, which is leading to patchy fog formation, mainly in valleys
west of the Laramie Range. This is not expected to be as consistent
as the fog we saw last week, but don`t be surprised to see some
localized visibility reductions heading out this morning. While
the area is largely clear now, cloud cover is expected to
increase shortly as a compact upper level low cutting underneath
the upper level ridge approaches the area. While most lift and
moisture associated with this system, we may see some light
showers / high elevation snow showers developing primarily in
Carbon county as the system slides to our south today. The cloud
shield may not cover the entire area, but expect those
southwest of a roughly Douglas to Sidney line to be fairly
cloudy today. Temperatures will be held slightly below seasonal
norms as a result. Winds are expected to be light today.

On Thursday, our area will be in between successive weak upper level
lows traveling underneath the messy ridge aloft. Look for more
sunshine for much of the day, and temperatures a few degrees warmer
than Wednesday (and near average). Ridging won`t have much time to
recover in between systems, so spiking temperatures are not expected
this time. Cloud cover will start to increase Thursday evening in
advance of the next upper level low / vort-max.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

The next upper level low will traverse across the region in the
Friday or Friday night time period, but models are all over the
place concerning what to do with this system. However, all scenarios
are fairly low impact regardless of the exact track of the upper
level low, which differs from just north of our area all the way to
northern Mexico. About 25% of ensemble members (mostly from the
GEFS) move the compact upper level low through our area, which
would bring the potential for some light precipitation on
Friday. Low end PoPs (15 to 20%) were introduced with this
update to account for this possibility. With this bit of
unsettled weather around, temperatures should remain fairly
close to or slightly above seasonal averages Friday and
Saturday.

Once that system moves through the area, models are in fairly good
agreement showing clean ridging building back into the area. NAEFS
mean 700-mb temperatures climb to the +6 to +8C range over much of
the area by Sunday, above the climatological 90th percentile.
Temperatures are expected to surge well above normal for Sunday, and
remain there into the early part of next week. Look for highs
generally in the 60s east of the Laramie range, and mid to upper 50s
to the west. These values are about 10F above average. Precipitation
chances look to remain minimal during this period. There is a slim
chances (about 25%) for some elevated winds Sunday night or Monday
as the ridge flattens out and the jet stream gets slightly closer to
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1021 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

A closed low aloft will move into western Colorado by this
evening, then to southwest Kansas by Thursday morning, as a
ridge aloft builds across our forecast area.

TAFS...High confidence in VFR prevailing with scattered to
broken high clouds. Winds will remain under 12 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RUBIN