062
FXUS65 KCYS 211108
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
408 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend anticipated from today through Saturday with
  less wind.

. A strong cold front is expected to arrive by the end of this
  weekend with a return to near-normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

A pleasant Thursday is in store for the region as above average
temperatures and mostly sunny conditions are expected. Warmer
overnight low temperatures in the 20s and 30s compared to 24
hours ago will allow for the region to become much warmer thanks
to the morning sunshine. Breezy conditions will stick around
for our cwa this morning, before slowly tapering off to only the
higher terrain by this afternoon. With the lower sun angle and
shorter daylight, we will have a brief period of mild
temperatures for the latter half of November in the lower
elevations, especially along and east of the I-25 corridor.
Afternoon high temperatures in the 50s are expected in the
valley areas and other lower terrain areas, with a couple of
spots reaching 60 degrees. There will be dry conditions across
far portions of southeast WY, resulting in elevated fire weather
concerns due to the minimum humidity hovering in the 15-20
percent. The elevated wind speeds for the higher terrain
overnight tonight will keep temperatures slightly warmer, but
that also will result in fair to poor overnight humidity
recovery for patchy spots along the eastern foothills of the
Laramie Range.

The mild temperatures continue on Friday and Saturday as many
areas will eclipse the 60 degree mark east of the I-25 corridor.
Dry air will persist beneath the upper level ridge pattern
entrenched across the area. Some locations may see daytime highs
in the middle 60s across the North Platte River Valley of SE WY
and western NE. Slightly cooler temperatures will be present for
the western forecast zones west of the Laramie Range by Saturday
as we see increasing clouds from the west. The strong weather
system impacting the Pacific Northwest will eventually bring its
remnant atmospheric energy with it towards by late Saturday.
There will be a cold front along with it that arrives by Sunday,
bringing cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

A pretty windy day Sunday as the GFS forecasting 700mb winds 50
to 55kts over the I-80 SUmmit back west to Arlington. In house
high wind guidance not showing strong winds...but with the 700mb
winds as high as they are...would think the wind prone areas
would be seeing 60+ mph gusts. Did increase winds Sunday morning
through the afternoon to reflect that thinking.

A cold front approaches from the northwest Sunday night into
Monday. This front stalls over the southern part of the CWA
Monday and into northern Colorado Tuesday. This front waves
northern into the southern CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday.
ECMWF forecasting pretty hefty QPFs as this happens with a total
around an inch here at Cheyenne and over the Summit. Should this
occur...we would be in need of winter headlines for Albany and
Laramie Counties. Will need to keep an eye on this as the event
gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 406 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions expected at all southeast Wyoming and Nebraska
Panhandle airports. Expect less wind today compared to
yesterday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC