478
FXUS65 KCYS 030545
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1045 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and high elevation snow showers continue through Tuesday
  morning.

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in place for the mountains,
  higher elevations of the I-80 corridor and higher elevations
  of Niobrara County, with wet accumulating snow expected.

- Snow accumulation is possible along the Pine Ridge and the
  north side of the Cheyenne Ridge, but confidence is lower.

- Widespread northwest winds gusting 45 to 55 mph are expected
  along and east of the Laramie Range Monday and Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Snow began earlier this morning for areas west of the Laramie Range.
Webcams and surface observations confirmed the snow, which was
accumulating on grassy surfaces under pretty decent snowfall rates.
Precipitation rates in these areas have begun to lessen as the
surface low tracks further to the northeast, allowing some of the
snow to melt thanks to the warmer ground temperature. The surface
low tracking to the northeast is also producing some impressive wind
gusts for areas east of the Laramie Range. Frequent gusts of 50 MPH
are being observed. These strong gusts will continue into the
evening hours, with the potential for an occasional 60 MPH wind gust
through that timeframe. After midnight, winds will weaken, but still
be quite blustery. Precipitation is beginning to fill in a bit more
east of the Laramie Range. Temperatures here are predominately in
the 40s so rain is still being observed. As snow levels drop to
about 5000 feet this evening, rain will transition to snow, with the
potential for accumulation, mainly along the Pine Ridge from the
Niobrara/Converse County line to the Sioux/Dawes County line. Went
ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Niobrara County as
Lusk and the hills south of town could see between 2 and 4 inches of
snow this evening and into tonight. Will also have to keep an eye on
Harrison as they also have the potential to pick up a few inches of
snow. The other area of concern will be the northern edge of the
Cheyenne Ridge. Newer model guidance keeps placing several inches of
snow here, however uncertainty is still high with amounts as it will
largely depend on the snow levels. For now, will keep an eye on this
area to see if any short-fuse winter headlines are needed. Other
Winter Weather Advisories remain on track, with snow tapering off
around the Arlington area this evening when the Advisory
expires. The mountain zones and the South Laramie Range are also
on track, with snow expected to continue through this evening,
with additional accumulations up to 4 inches depending on location
and elevation.

The weather on Tuesday looks quieter as the surface low pushes out
of the area. Some lingering precipitation and wind could still be
possible in the Nebraska panhandle during the morning hours, but
will taper off by the afternoon. Decreasing clouds are expected
throughout the day with mostly sunny skies anticipated by the
afternoon. The increased sunshine will lead to warmer temperatures
with highs in the 40s and low 50s. However, temperatures could be
cooler based on the amount of snow cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Wednesday...Our region will be in between weather disturbances with
a trough aloft over central Colorado, producing some cloud cover
over our counties, but no precipitation. Temperatures slightly
warmer than Tuesday with 700 mb temperatures near 0 Celsius.

Thursday...High amplitude and well pronounced ridging aloft will
prevail across our counties, keeping the weather dry. The warming
trend will continue, and with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius,
yielding maximum temperatures mainly in the 50s.

Friday...A progressive and positively tilted shortwave trough aloft
moves across eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming, though with little
if any cloud cover and no precipitation for our forecast area.

Saturday...Brisk northwest flow aloft prevails, and with decent low
level pressure gradients, look for a windy and blustery day. Maximum
temperatures should be slightly cooler than Friday.

Sunday...Transitory ridging aloft moves across our counties, with
significant height rises aloft. 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius
will yield high temperatures from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Monday...The slow warming trend continues as the flow aloft backs to
westerly and with little if any cloud cover and 700 mb temperatures
near 5 Celsius suggesting maximum temperatures from the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

An active 12 hours ahead with a variety of aviation hazards present,
as an elongated pressure trough translates east of our area. A
rather sharp pressure gradient has kept NW winds of 25-35 knots,
peaking as high as 45 knots, which is expected to relax sometime
late morning as the surface pressure gradient weakens.

Perhaps the main concern overnight into tomorrow morning will be
areas of showers and possibly even some wet flakes for the Wyoming
terminals, and solely liquid precipitation for the Nebraska
terminals. CIGs are largely expected to remain MVFR, with low
confidence in brief IFR CIGs and VIS reductions under some of the
heavier showers. Expect cloud bases to gradually lift from west to
east tomorrow morning when the system exits the region. Primarily
VFR is expected to prevail for the remainder of the day, with low
probabilities of fog developing after 03Z Tuesday. Confidence isn`t
high enough at this time to introduce a PROB30 group yet/this far
out.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Tuesday for WYZ102.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
     WYZ103-112-114-116.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...NB