420
FXUS65 KCYS 172334
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
534 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to have the
  potential to produce severe wind, hail, and/or an isolated
  tornado for the next several hours.

- A warming and drying trend will take over Wednesday through
  Saturday. Near record high temperatures are possible on Friday
  and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Convection continues to slowly march across the area this
evening ahead of the axis of a powerful upper level shortwave
trough moving across the area. The MCS which tracked along I-80
earlier today is now moving out of the area, but additional
development has popped up behind. While Laramie county and the
southern panhandle has had its atmosphere thoroughly turned over
exhausting much of the instability, we have some lingering
instability in Albany county, and in east central Wyoming into
the central and northern Nebraska panhandle. We will need to
continue to watch the storms around Lusk towards Glendo as the
track east for a few possible additional flare ups, but overall
the widespread severe storm threat is on the downtrend. Drier
air is expected to move into the area behind the trough axis
between about 9PM and midnight, which will quickly bring any
lingering activity to an end.

Skies will quickly clear this evening, leading to a fairly cool
morning Wednesday and possibly a few isolated areas of patchy
radiation fog. Expect a nice day Wednesday with seasonal
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, mostly sunny skies,
and light winds. While we may see some afternoon cumulus cloud
development, little to no shower or thunderstorm activity is
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thursday...Zonal flow develops and with warm temperatures aloft and
relatively dry low and mid levels, dry conditions will continue. 700
mb temperatures near 13 Celsius will yield high temperatures from
the mid 80s to mid 90s.

Friday-Sunday...The flow aloft backs to southwest. With dry low and
mid levels and warm temperatures aloft, dry weather will continue.
Highs from the upper 80s to near 100 degrees Friday and Saturday,
with a bit cooler temperatures for Sunday as 700 mb temperatures
lower to near 16 Celsius.

Monday...After a cold frontal passage, and 700 mb temperatures near
12 Celsius, high temperatures will be cooler, in the mid 60s to mid
70s. Looks like enough low and mid level moisture to produce
isolated late day showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A weather disturbance and a moist atmosphere will help produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, before drier
air moves in under northwest flow aloft later tonight and on
Wednesday.

Wyoming TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 6000 to
15000 feet will occur until 06Z, then skies will be mostly
clear. Occasional thunderstorms will prevail at Laramie until
02Z, producing wind gusts to 40 knots, visibilities to 4 miles
and ceilings near 4000 feet. Otherwise, winds will gust to
25 knots at Rawlins and Laramie until 02Z.

Nebraska TAFs...Scattered to broken clouds from 6000 to
10000 feet will prevail until 06Z, then skies will be mostly
clear. Occasional thunderstorms will occur at Sidney until 02Z,
producing wind gusts to 40 knots, visibilities to 2 miles and
ceilings near 3500 feet. Thunderstorms will be in the vicinity
at Chadron, Alliance and Scottsbluff until 02Z. Winds will gust
to 32 knots at Chadron, Scottsbluff and Sidney until 02Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN