752
FXUS65 KCYS 111201
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
500 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and quiet weather expected for much of the week.
  Locally strong winds expected for the southeast Wyoming wind
  prone areas this morning through early this afternoon.

- Warming trend continues through Wednesday with high
  temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

- A trough will move into the area later this weekend with
  chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Main forecast concern through midweek will be windy conditions
and locally strong winds across the southeast Wyoming wind prone
areas today. High Wind event ongoing early this morning with all
wind prone zones seeing gusts over 58 MPH. Peak gust of 70 to 72
MPH recorded along the southern Laramie Range with several other
locations reaching 65 MPH so far. Suspect some mountain wave
activity has led to the higher gusts with even a few sudden
strong gusts up to 45 mph here at the office last night. Expect
the strongest winds to be over the next several hours through
sunrise. Surface pressure tendencies over the eastern plains are
still slightly negative, with increasing surface pressure
across northern Wyoming as a weak "cool" front dives south. This
feature is forecast to push over the area later this morning
and weaken, but result in positive pressure tendencies by noon,
which will diminish the high wind threat. Current timing of the
High Wind Warning looks good at this time and not planning on
adding any additional zones so far.

Otherwise, pretty quiet weather through Wednesday as the upper
level ridge axis slowly translates eastward into the Front Range
by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures today and Wednesday will
be similar to Monday, and likely a few degrees warmer over the
eastern plains with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to upper
60s each afternoon through Wednesday. A few areas across far
eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska may see highs in the lower
70s. Dry conditions will continue through midweek with
occasional mid to high cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A quick look in the extended shows a fairly tame forecast. An
upper-level ridge will be in place over most of western CONUS
through the end of the work week. This will ensure that warm and
dry air stays locked over the region at least through Friday.
Above average high temperatures in the 50s and 60s can be
expected, with perhaps a few 70s making it into the Nebraska
panhandle. Subsidence under the ridge will keep precipitation at
bay through at least Thursday, and perhaps even Friday.
Deterministic models show a strong cut-off low pressure system
moving through Arizona and New Mexico this weekend. The far
south placement of the low has deterministic models showing
little to no precipitation in the CWA this weekend. As a result,
lowered PoPs below NBM guidance, but still kept higher PoPs in
the Snowy and Sierra Madres to account for some orographic lift
and mid-level moisture. Although confidence in precipitation is
low for the weekend, confidence is high for cooler temperatures.
A trough will still move across the region over the weekend,
ushering in cooler air aloft. However, the air aloft does not
appear to be that cold, so temperatures over the weekend will
likely still be around average for mid-November.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Windy conditions will be the primary Aviation concern for all
terminals today as a weak disturbance moves across the northern
plains today.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue with dry
conditions. West to southwest winds will gust as high as 35 knots
for the southeast WY terminals through 21z Tuesday, while western
Nebraska will see winds increasing after 17z with gusts up to 30
knots possible. LLWS is likely for KLAR, KCYS, KSNY, and KBFF over
the next hour or two until 15z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ106-116-
     117.
     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...TJT