085
FXUS65 KCYS 120509
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1009 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues through Thursday with temperatures
  increasing a few degrees each day.

- A trough will move into the area later this weekend with
  chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

High wind warnings have expired across the region as we remain
breezy, with winds expected to continue to decline through this
evening. Otherwise the short term remains relatively quiet as a
ridge is now moving across our region and will steadily warm us
and also keep us dry through Wednesday. Our overnight lows will
be cool in the 30`s to upper 20`s tonight thanks to clearing
and the post-frontal environment, but under this ridge expect a
steady warming trend that will last into the long term. Highs
tomorrow should be around 1-5 degrees warmer than today, and
while we`ll still some breezy winds for our wind prone
locations, overall speeds will be less than today. Finally,
we`ll see conditions a little drier than compared to today, with
elevated fire weather concerns possible through the beginning of
the long term as RH values dip into the upper teens for some
locations, but fire weather concerns should remain minimal at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mild and dry weather is expected to last through Friday as
unseasonably strong ridging remains in place over the area. With 700-
mb temperatures around +4 to +6C for most of the week, expect highs
to remain as much as 15 to 20F above average Thursday and Friday.
This will be accompanied by continued breezy conditions.
Probabilities for high wind increase for Friday in the wind prone
areas as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of an approaching
Pacific trough. In-house model guidance shows probabilities ranging
from about 30 to 50% for high winds in the typical spots.

A change in the weather is still on track for the weekend. Ensembles
are starting to coalesce around a split trough solution, with a
weak, fast moving shortwave racing to our north on Saturday, leaving
a closed low behind over the southwest that could become a forecast
concern by early next week. Approximately 20% of ensemble members
still show these features remaining together which would lead to
much colder temperatures over the weekend along with increased
precipitation chances, but due to the lower probability, the
official forecast favors the split trough solution. The northern
branch looks to pass well to our north, putting most of the area
into westerly winds. This will reduce precipitation chances for the
High Plains, but low-end PoPs are maintained along and west of the
Laramie Range. While at least a modest cool down is expected for the
entire area, forecast highs are still generally near to above
average for this time of year on Saturday and Sunday.

The next feature to watch will be the closed low (assuming the split
flow scenario plays out as currently favored). This should make its
way across the Rockies Sunday into Monday. Right now, this system
presents a decent chance for some widespread precipitation (at least
more of a chance than we have seen in quite some time), but is far
from a guarantee. Probabilities for greater than 0.1" of
precipitation are generally around 30 to 50% for most of the area,
and higher in the mountains. This would be a pretty warm system for
the time of year, such that probabilities for 1" or more of snow are
around 10-30% for most populated areas. Snow levels could be
unusually high for mid-November, but we still have the mention of
at least some rain-snow mix in for all above about 6000 ft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Clear skies and light winds are expected at all terminals
overnight into Thursday morning. VFR will dominate at all
terminals on Thursday with light west to southwesterly afternoon
winds and high cirrus clouds drifting in from the west. No
weather impacts to aviation are expected.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MAC