579
FXUS65 KCYS 101200
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
500 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and quiet weather expected for much of the week.
  Locally strong winds expected for the southeast Wyoming wind
  prone areas late Monday and into Tuesday.

- Warming trend Monday through Wednesday with high temperatures
  returning to the upper 50s to upper 60s.

- Next Pacific storm system will move into the area later this
  week and next weekend with rain and snow possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Current IR Satellite loop across the area shows intervals of mid
to high clouds moving southeast across the region...as the
upper level ridge axis begins to translate eastward over the
Intermountain west for most of this week. Pretty quiet weather
today through Wednesday with some moderate impacts due to
locally strong gusty winds across the southeast Wyoming wind
prone areas beginning later today. In the meantime, temperatures
will trend warmer as 700mb temperatures climb above 5c ahead of
the ridge axis. Kept high temperatures in the upper 50s to
upper 60s each afternoon through Wednesday. A few areas across
far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska may see highs in the
lower 70s, but this should be brief due to expected cloud cover.

As for winds, Models, including in-house wind guidance, has not
changed much over the last 24 hours and show a decent gap wind
event over the wind prone areas with windy conditions elsewhere
along and west of the I-25 corridor Tuesday. Kept the High Wind
Warning as is for gusts up to 70 MPH. Can not rule out a few
gusts around 75 MPH along the Laramie Range as models have
maintained the 60+ knot core of winds at 700mb early Tuesday
morning with a strong near-surface pressure gradient. Models
have trended a little earlier with the strongest 700mb wind core
late this afternoon for the Arlington/Elk Mountain area, so will
monitor wind trends today and may need to shift the start time a
little earlier in the afternoon. Otherwise, no other changes to
the previous forecast package with dry weather expected to
continue through midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

Lets shift the focus to the tail end of the week and into the
weekend, changes are in store. Guidance is indicating troughing
progressing east across the Intermountain West into our neck of the
woods by Friday afternoon. However, model spread increases as the
upper level trough moves closer with the GFS being a bit more
progressive while the EC is not as robust and has cut-off low over
the Southwest by Saturday. While GEFS has a range of possibilities
in the placement. So, with divergent solutions with current runs of
in-hopuse guidance, we expect solutions to differ over the next
several runs. Overall, confidence is high that a deep trough will
impact the region, but its evolution remains uncertain. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Mid to upper level flow will become more westerly early this week as
an upper level ridge moves east into the Front Range. Dry weather is
expected to continue with increasing winds and LLWS for southeast
Wyoming and portions of western Nebraska.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail with BKN-OVC mid
to high clouds above 10000 feet AGL. Westerly winds will increase
after 17z Monday for mainly the southeast Wyoming terminals. Gusts
around 30 knots possible in the afternoon. Added LLWS after 00z this
evening for KLAR, KCYS, KSNY, and KBFF when winds are expected to
decouple this evening.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Tuesday
     for WYZ106-116-117.
     High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM MST Tuesday
     for WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...TJT