983
FXUS65 KCYS 101128
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
528 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of southeast
  Wyoming for gusty winds, low relative humidities, and dry
  lightning through 9 PM.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely
  persist through Tuesday.

- Hot temperatures start this week before a pattern change
  begins to occur as precipitation chances rise and
  temperatures fall, dropping to below normal by the later half
  of the week.

- Increasing precipitation during the middle to end of the week
  will also come with increasing risk of severe weather and
  flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Main concerns moving into the start of the work week will be
further critical fire weather conditions alongside thunderstorms
that could be strong to severe, with this activity shifting a
bit further east on Tuesday, but into the long term we will
likely see severe weather return as more widespread
precipitation occurs. For Monday`s fire weather concerns,
another day of near to critical conditions are expected with the
duo of gusty winds and low RH values, primarily occurring along
and west of the I-25 corridor. But to accompany this, with how
thunderstorms have developed over the past several days, have
made mention of dry lightning once again as the inverted V
forecast soundings remain, giving us the potential for high
based thunderstorms with gusty outflows and lightning with
little to no precipitation. The second concern for the day will
be strong to severe thunderstorms once again firing off of the
stalled frontal boundary located across the Nebraska Panhandle.
MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range alongside similar
DCAPE values should continue a lower end risk of hail and strong
to severe wind gusts, with SPC agreeing and issuing a marginal
risk for the eastern portion of the Panhandle. Otherwise,
temperatures still remain on the warm side at around 10 to 12
degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 80`s to very low
triple digits.

Tuesday mirrors Monday in regards to temperatures as we see
little change, with highs almost exactly the same for the day.
Our critical fire environment should also be largely the same,
with gusty winds and low RH for our northwestern zones and the
threat of some dry lightning down into the high terrain zones
bordering Colorado. While the frontal boundary that helped to
fuel severe chances the past few days will still be lingering
into the Nebraska Panhandle, the best instability looks to shift
just east outside of our forecast area. Therefore we may not
get the low end risk of severe weather, but with the continued
threat of a dry surface promoting high DCAPE and inverted V
soundings, don`t be surprised if another storm or two at or near
severe level occurs. Following this however we`ll begin to see
the pattern shifting with cooler and wetter conditions likely as
we move into the middle and later half of the work week,
hopefully calming our unending fire weather environment and
bringing some much needed rainfall to the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

As the long term forecast progresses, the 500mb jet moves from the
Pacific NW to right over our area on Wednesday. While this jet
has winds in the range of 50-60 knots, it is suppressed. As the
ridge flattens, chances of moisture increase. PWAT values
increase starting on Wednesday, with the highest values being
Friday at around 1.5" near the Nebraska panhandle. RH values
increase significantly on Thursday, ranging from 60-90%! This
moisture sticks around through Sunday, even bringing some
chances of thunderstorms with it. Shear increases Friday and
Saturday evening, supporting chances of thunderstorms. Surface
winds stay in a normal range for the area, typically staying
below 35 knots. With this moisture moving in, and winds staying
relatively slow, fire weather becomes much less of a concern
through this long term period. 700mb temperatures show Wednesday
still being quite warm, with much of the CWA being in the
15-17C range. Temperatures begin to cool down Thursday as a cold
front moves in, bringing temperatures to the 10-12C range. The
area stays cool through Sunday, below 13C.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Generally light
winds through the morning with speeds then increasing into the
afternoon, 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, with WY
terminals seeing mostly westerly to northwesterlies while NE
terminals will be more variable due to lingering frontal
boundary. Wyoming terminals may see gusty showers with strong
winds and little to no rain, while Nebraska terminals will have
a chance for strong to severe storms. Any of this activity could
produce very strong and erratic winds. CIGs will be mid to high
level through the period, even under storms.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Air Quality Alert until noon MDT today for WYZ101>119.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ417>427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...ML/AM
AVIATION...CG