467
FXUS65 KCYS 121727
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1027 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues through Thursday with temperatures
  increasing a few degrees each day. Dry conditions will
  continue through the end of the week.

- A trough will move into the area later this weekend with
  chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Benign and mild weather expected through Thursday with mostly
pleasant temperatures for this time of the year. Upper level
ridge axis will slowly translates eastward across the Front
Range Wednesday and Thursday with upper level flow becoming a
little more westerly each day. This will result in slightly
warmer temperatures with downslope winds expected. Temperatures
today and Thursday will climb into the 60s with a few areas
across far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska seeing highs
peaking in the low to mid 70s by Thursday afternoon. Dry
conditions will continue with occasional mid to high cloudiness.

For Thursday night, in-house wind models showing increasing
winds across the wind prone areas. After some model analysis,
High Wind headlines look unlikely at this time with subpar low
level subsidence and 700mb winds below 45 knots. Increased winds
a bit for our wind prone zones, but kept winds below High Wind
criteria through early Friday morning. Will continue to monitor
wind trends over the next few days in case conditions change.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mild and dry weather is expected to last through Friday as
unseasonably strong ridging remains in place over the area. With 700-
mb temperatures around +4 to +6C for most of the week, expect highs
to remain as much as 15 to 20F above average on Friday. This
will be accompanied by continued breezy conditions. Probabilities
for high wind increase for Friday in the wind prone areas as
the pressure gradient tightens in advance of an approaching
Pacific trough. In-house model guidance shows probabilities
ranging from about 30 to 50% for high winds in the typical
spots.

A change in the weather is still on track for the weekend. Ensembles
are starting to coalesce around a split trough solution, with a
weak, fast moving shortwave racing to our north on Saturday, leaving
a closed low behind over the southwest that could become a forecast
concern by early next week. Approximately 20% of ensemble members
still show these features remaining together which would lead to
much colder temperatures over the weekend along with increased
precipitation chances, but due to the lower probability, the
official forecast favors the split trough solution. The northern
branch looks to pass well to our north, putting most of the area
into westerly winds. This will reduce precipitation chances for the
High Plains, but low-end PoPs are maintained along and west of the
Laramie Range. While at least a modest cool down is expected for the
entire area, forecast highs are still generally near to above
average for this time of year on Saturday and Sunday.

The next feature to watch will be the closed low (assuming the split
flow scenario plays out as currently favored). This should make its
way across the Rockies Sunday into Monday. Right now, this system
presents a decent chance for some widespread precipitation (at least
more of a chance than we have seen in quite some time), but is far
from a guarantee. Probabilities for greater than 0.1" of
precipitation are generally around 30 to 50% for most of the area,
and higher in the mountains. This would be a pretty warm system for
the time of year, such that probabilities for 1" or more of snow are
around 10-30% for most populated areas. Snow levels could be
unusually high for mid-November, but we still have the mention of
at least some rain-snow mix in for all above about 6000 ft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1026 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Overall winds
will be fairly light, aside from occasional gusts around 20 to
25 knots at Wyoming terminals today. The wind direction may be
variable at times in Nebraska. More consistent westerlies will
return towards the end of the TAF period Thursday morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN