Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
345
FNUS75 KCYS 171643
FWSCYS
Spot Forecast for Pole Mountain Prescribed Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1043 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service at (307) 772-2227
.DISCUSSION...
Thursday and Friday will see increasing temperatures, and humidity
values decreasing to the middle to upper 30 percent range by 1500.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances increase after 1500 for
both Thursday and Friday afternoon, with gusty and erratic winds
possible up to 25-35mph. Sustained winds of 10-15mph from the south,
southwest after 1200 both days can be expected. Wetting rainfall
is possible greater than 0.10 inches after 1500 both days. Mixing
heights and ventilation will struggle in the morning hours, but
increase to good to excellent by the afternoon timeframe.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................3 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 72-74.
Min humidity........38-42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (58300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to good (79200 knot-ft)
early in the morning increasing to excellent
(171600 knot-ft) in the afternoon late in the
morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........75 75 75 75 75 30 30 30 30 30 30
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4
Temp............52 55 57 60 64 67 68 69 70 69 68
RH..............80 74 69 62 52 47 43 42 41 44 47
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14
20 FT wind gust.26 26 26 25 25 23 23 23 23 25 25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.3 1.2 3.7 6.6 8.6 8.4 7.1 5.7 5.1 4.5
Transp wind dir.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S
Transp wind spd.17 17 17 18 21 23 23 22 21 21 20
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/10003 5 17 58 120 172 167 136 103 90 79
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................7 percent.
LAL.................
Min temperature.....Around 53-55.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 14 mph shifting to the
southwest around 8 mph early in the morning.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 12
to 14 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (65600 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (1100 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........49 49 49 49 49 49 59 59 59 59 59 59
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............M M M M M M M M M M M M
Temp............67 64 62 59 58 58 57 57 56 55 55 55
RH..............50 58 62 69 72 69 72 72 77 80 77 72
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S SW
20 FT wind spd..14 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 8
20 FT wind gust.26 26 26 25 23 23 22 20 20 18 16 16
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.20 18 17 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 12
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/100066 43 21 6 1 2 4 4 4 3 2 1
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
CWR.................2 percent increasing to 14 percent in the
afternoon.
LAL.................
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........33-38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......9800 ft AGL increasing to 10900 ft AGL early in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph shifting to the west 23
to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (69700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (122400
knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
excellent (217300 knot-ft) in the afternoon
late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........62 62 62 62 62 62 65 65 65 65 65 65
Weather cov..... LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............M M M M M M M M M M M M
Temp............54 57 59 62 65 67 70 71 71 72 70 68
RH..............71 64 62 58 50 45 39 38 38 38 42 47
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW W W SW SW SW SW S
20 FT wind spd..8 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.16 16 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.8 8.8 9.8 11 11 M M
Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.12 12 13 15 17 21 23 23 23 23 24 25
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/10003 7 16 33 70 122 175 201 212 217 M M
$$
Forecaster...Wills
Requested by...Coyde Fickel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416283.0/CYS
.DELDT 06/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL coyde.fickel@usda.gov