Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
373
FNUS75 KCYS 252350
FWSCYS
Spot Forecast for La Bonte Fire...BLM
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
550 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service at (307) 772-2227
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday. Hot, above average temperatures
will lead to dry conditions with no precipitation chances. Minimum relative humidity will
fall to about 12 percent. Breezy conditions will also exist with west winds at 15 to 20
MPH with gusts of 30 to 35 MPH. Fairly poor overnight humidity recovery is expected
Thursday night with a maximum relative humidity around 40 percent. Another warm day is
expected Friday, however, relative humidity will remain just above critical thresholds.
Winds will be out of the south, shifting to southeast by the afternoon at 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......8900 ft AGL increasing to 14500 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (21800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (96600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (275400
knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7 4 4 2 3 3 6 9 8 10 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............64 66 71 77 80 83 84 85 86 84 84
RH..............30 29 25 19 17 15 14 13 12 13 13
20 FT wind dir..SW W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..18 18 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 13 12
20 FT wind gust.33 33 32 31 30 29 28 26 25 24 22
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.3 2.4 5.4 8.9 12 13 14 14 15 14
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.24 23 22 21 21 20 20 21 21 22 24
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
SDspl kt-ft/100022 26 46 97 161 203 229 253 254 275 299
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the
southwest 6 to 7 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 24 mph decreasing to 7 to 14 mph
late in the evening, then shifting to the
southwest 7 to 8 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (177400 knot-ft) decreasing to good
(86700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
to poor (8700 knot-ft) late in the night early
in the evening.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........9 10 10 8 7 9 6 5 6 8 8 8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............81 75 71 69 67 65 64 62 61 59 58 58
RH..............14 17 19 21 22 24 25 28 32 36 37 38
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..12 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7
20 FT wind gust.20 18 17 16 15 14 14 12 10 9 10 12
Mix hgt (kft)...13 9.3 5.1 1.7 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6
Transp wind dir.W W W W W NW NW NW W W SW S
Transp wind spd.24 22 20 17 15 14 13 9 7 7 7 8
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/1000270 177 87 25 9 11 16 11 9 9 9 11
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (102600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to good (64400 knot-ft)
early in the morning increasing to very good
(109900 knot-ft) in the afternoon late in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 8 8 7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............57 59 62 64 69 73 78 79 80 81 80 78
RH..............40 40 40 38 32 28 23 21 20 19 20 20
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7
20 FT wind gust.13 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.0 1.2 2.0 3.7 5.9 7.9 9.4 10 10 7.9 5.0
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S SW SW S S S S
Transp wind spd.13 12 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 13 14 15
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100012 10 11 18 34 54 79 94 103 110 95 64
$$
Forecaster...Fuller
Requested by...James Diaz
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2423053.0/CYS
.DELDT 09/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL James.Diaz@usda.gov