530
FNUS28 KWNS 042052
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High
Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance
continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the
southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously
strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually
breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as
low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies
through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will
promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies.
The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying
will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the
teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear
possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble
guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely
develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher
probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM
and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher
in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern
Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week.

..Moore.. 02/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$