332
FNUS28 KWNS 122217
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
Troughing over the western CONUS will lead to high pressure nudging
eastward across the Plains and Southeast. Expect fire concerns to
continue across the southern Plains. Monsoonal moisture will at
least briefly impact the Southwest, Great Basin, and much of the
Rockies with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, a large trough with additional shortwave disturbances
progressing through the flow will support increasing chances for
mixed wet and dry thunderstorms, especially along the west and
northern peripheries of this moisture surge. While more central and
southern portions of the Intermountain West are likely to receive
wetting rainfall with this event, recent large fires emerging over
the southern Great Basin have shown the resilience of very dry fuels
in perpetuating lightning started fires amid slightly wet
thunderstorms.

...Southern Plains...
Forecast model consensus continues to highlight an area across the
southern Plains where afternoon RH values are forecast to fall to
15-20% by peak heating on Day 3/Friday. With the tightening surface
pressure gradient, confidence has increased in more widespread
sustained southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph. A corridor of 40
percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions exists
from northern TX through northern OK where fuels are increasingly
receptive.

...Northern California/Northwest...
The aforementioned trough and associated mid-level shortwave
disturbances will provide lift amid sufficient instability to
generate probabilities of isolated morning and afternoon
thunderstorms over portions of northwest CA and much of central OR
on Day 3/Friday and Day 4/Saturday. As such, 10% Dry Thunderstorm
probabilities have been expanded to include central OR. Additional
probabilities may be needed in future outlook cycles as thunderstorm
potential continues across the Pacific Northwest through the
weekend. However, with each consecutive day of thunderstorm
potential, storms will likely trend more wet than dry, precluding an
additional area on Day 4/Saturday over central OR with this forecast
issuance.

..Stearns.. 08/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$