965
FNUS28 KWNS 212150
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

...Synopsis...
The current trough driving the fire weather threat on Days 1-2
continues to move northeastward on Day 3/Sunday. High pressure
remains in place over much of the south-central portions of the
CONUS with shortwave trough passages periodically moving across the
crest of the ridge through the northern states. As we turn the
corner toward next week, the ridge amplifies slightly and builds
over the Intermountain West once again. By mid-to-late next week,
another impactful trough will again approach the western CONUS.
While differences in timing remain, making the threat uncertain for
any particular day, highlights are likely across the Pacific
Northwest once again as the system approaches shore. This will be
monitored with future forecast guidance.

...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
Northwesterly winds over portions of the northern High Plains and
nearby northern Rocky Mountains remain a concern on Day 3/Sunday.
Across much of central MT, sustained westerly winds of 10-20 mph
will occur amid afternoon RHs of 15-25%. The existing 40% Critical
Wind/RH probabilities were adjusted slightly westward on Day
3/Sunday and also reach into the central higher elevations of ID.
Additionally, a 10% risk of Dry Thunderstorms was introduced over
much of the same area, which is of particular concern. While fuels
are not quite as dry as in portions of the Pacific Northwest
anticipated to receive Dry Thunderstorm activity in the preceding 36
hours, very strong thunderstorm outflows (see the SPC Convective
Outlook for this time frame) amid warm, dry, and windy surface
conditions will present simultaneous concerns for new ignitions and
fire spread potential. This area will be monitored closely for
possible critical wind/RH and increasing thunderstorm coverage.

...Pacific Northwest...
Lingering moisture, quick-moving storms, and dry fuels (ERCs near
the 80-95th percentile) remain in place on Day 3/Sunday as mostly
dry thunderstorms are expected to initiate for another afternoon
along the international border with WA. The existing 10% Dry
Thunderstorm risk area was maintained over far northeastern WA. On
Day 4/Monday, a 10% risk area is highlighted over southwest ID,
southeast OR, and portions of northern NV as monsoonal moisture
aloft continues to meander further north/west over drier fuels.

...Southern Plains...
On Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday, a front and tightened surface
pressure gradient over the southern Plains will increase fire
weather risk. Current ensemble forecast guidance suggests sustained
10-20 mph south to southwesterly winds will combine with afternoon
RHs near 15-20% across the TX/OK Panhandles and surrounding areas
with critically dry fuels.

..Stearns.. 08/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$