665
FNUS28 KWNS 272140
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing is forecast across portions of the Pacific
Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main upper-level
low remaining offshore. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwaves
will rotate through the base of the trough and over the area within
the southwest flow aloft. The strongest and most well-defined
shortwave is forecast Day 4/Thursday, potentially allowing a
thunderstorm threat to emerge. Thereafter, longer-range ensemble
guidance continues to suggest that the aforementioned upper-level
low may move onshore this weekend, yielding dry and breezy
conditions across the Northwest and Northern Rockies; though timing
details remain uncertain.

...Northwestern US...
Weaker flow aloft will limit a broader fire weather threat across
the Pacific Northwest through much of the week. Though, locally
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely most days due to
lingering dry and breezy conditions amid receptive fuels. Dry
thunderstorm chances may return on Day 4/Thursday as the
aforementioned shortwave trough impinges upon the region amid ample
instability, a dry boundary layer, and sufficient mid-level
moisture, supporting the introduction of 10% probabilities. A
persisting dry airmass and warm daytime temperatures are expected to
increase fuel receptivity, enhancing concerns for new lightning
ignitions. Longer range guidance continues to suggest dry and breezy
conditions should return to the Northwest sometime this weekend as
the offshore trough moves inland. As such, 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced on Days 6-7/Saturday-Sunday where
ensemble RH/wind joint probabilities highlight increased
probabilities to overlap exceptionally dry fuels. The spatial extent
of drawn probabilities may be adjusted in future outlook cycles as
predictability increases.

...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the
southern High Plains through much of the workweek; however, recent
fuel guidance suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed and winds
are forecast to generally remain at or below elevated thresholds.
Nevertheless, fuels are expected to continue drying due to the
multiple days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which may
necessitate fire weather highlights in later forecasts.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$