275
FNUS28 KWNS 292130
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 061200Z

A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary
along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday
before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday.
Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building
across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through
late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to
drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of
central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day
7/Thursday.

...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland
Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin...
The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is
forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of
northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great
Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are
forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis,
precluding Critical probabilities.

...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the
Northwest...
Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across
portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday
through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the
area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase
in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn
periods on ongoing large fires.

Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the
evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is
now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California
coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday.
While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture
interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit
too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of
thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities.
Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next
week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning
potential will be monitored closely over the next few days.

..Elliott.. 08/29/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$