887
FNUS28 KWNS 202135
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

...Discussion...
Weak mid-level impulses embedded within zonal flow will support
precipitation chances across the eastern CONUS through Day
4/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a shallow cold front will slowly progress
southward across southern Texas and the Deep South, promoting
isolated thunderstorm activity. Hot and mostly dry conditions will
continue across the lower Mississippi Valley through next week,
contributing to forecast ERCs approaching the 90-95th percentile
beyond Day 4/Wednesday; but, prevailing light winds should suppress
overall fire weather concerns.

A weak mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest on Day
3/Tuesday, bringing thunderstorms to Nevada. Some mixed receptive
fuels may reside across portions of eastern Nevada, though forecast
ERCs range from the 50-70th percentile. Ensemble guidance is in
general agreement for ridging to build over the central-western
CONUS late in the workweek as an upper trough evolves across the
Eastern Pacific and impinges upon the Northwest. The overall pattern
indicates stronger southwest winds could return to the northern
Great Basin and Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Thursday; however,
an expected marginal fuelscape should limit a broader fire weather
threat. If fuels guidance trends drier, critical probabilities may
be needed in future outlook cycles.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/20/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$