Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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809
FNUS28 KWNS 132059
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

A mid/upper-level ridge centered on the southern/central Rockies
will deamplify as a midlevel trough and related strong flow aloft
track eastward across the Great Basin and parts of the Southwest and
southern/central Rockies on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. The strong flow
aloft will overspread a warm/dry antecedent air mass across these
regions, promoting elevated to locally critical fire-weather
conditions each afternoon. Depending on the receptiveness of fuels,
higher probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the
Great Basin on Day 4/Monday and the southern Rockies on Day
5/Tuesday -- given relatively high confidence in the development of
critical conditions each day.

By Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday, a robust midlevel trough/low should
evolve off the Pacific Northwest Coast. While the exact
timing/evolution of the trough/low varies among the medium-range
guidance, current indications are that strong west-southwesterlies
peripheral to this feature will overspread parts of the Great Basin
on Day 7/Thursday and/or Day 8/Friday. Therefore, 40-percent
Critical probabilities have been added for both days, and future
adjustments will likely be needed.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$