889
FNUS28 KWNS 062158
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

The initial upper-level trough dominating the western CONUS will
move through southern Canada and the Northern Rockies, dragging a
weak cold front across the Great Basin and nearby regions. The
atmosphere transitions into a brief holding pattern as this system
departs and another trough arrives over the Pacific Northwest.
Broad, persistent southwest winds will continue over across the
Southwest and the Great Basin as the next, less amplified trough
moves through the upper level flow. Behind the second trough,
ridging is modeled to build in over the west coast. This would raise
temperatures back above normal for much of the Pacific Northwest and
relax pressure gradients (weaken winds) as next weekend approaches.

...Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday...
Clear skies and deep atmospheric mixing will drive strong afternoon
warming, dropping relative humidity down to 5 to 15 percent yet
again over much of the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and nearby
Rocky Mountain area. This dry air will overlap with localized winds
gusting between 15 and 25 mph. 70% probabilities for Critical fire
weather remains firmly in place across southern UT and northern AZ,
expanding slightly into western CO and southern WY. Surrounding
areas, including southeastern NV, central WY, and portions of
southern CA and AZ face a 40% likelihood of critical wind/RH
conditions where grass, brush, and timber are dry and receptive to
fire. Additionally, thunderstorms amid a dry sub-cloud layer,
limited precipitable water, and fast moving storm motion in portions
of southeast WY, far western NE, and northeast CO will lead to a 10%
chance of Isolated Dry Thunder. The threat is very similar once
again on Day 4/Tuesday, but winds appear to be a bit more widespread
over the Front Range and portions of the central/northern High
Plains. This is particularly concerning given the possibility of dry
lightning in this same area preceding this increased wind/RH threat.

...Day 5/Wednesday through Day 7/Friday...
As the aforementioned second broader trough spreads moves across the
northern CONUS, the combination of highest winds and lowest RHs will
be focused slightly farther south over portions of the southern
Great Basin and northern Southwest on Day 5/Wednesday through Day
7/Friday. The latest model consensus maintains the best potential
for potential critical conditions over northern AZ and NM.

..Stearns.. 06/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$