840
FNUS28 KWNS 012148
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over
northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue
through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the
West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing
develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above
normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge,
including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great
Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance
also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of
Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase
moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week
and next weekend.

...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas...
Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result
in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico
and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid
recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are
likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast
Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the
Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions
may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day
4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well.

...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West...
Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central
Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid
to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy
conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above
normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate
fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading
in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for
much of the Southwest into late next week.

Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and
north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week,
bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual
Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in
chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central
Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing
and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry
thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely
for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast
pattern.

...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida...
Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central
and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the
potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally
critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in
the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze
thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south
Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday.

..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$