098
FNUS28 KWNS 172156
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - Central and Southern Plains...
A dry, continental air mass behind an advancing cold front across
the eastern U.S. should settle into the central/southern Plains by
Day 3/Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms along the front will push
eastward, bringing wetting rains to much of the eastern U.S. through
Monday. A progressive mid-level trough pushes eastward into
central/northern Plains on Day 4/Monday while a corresponding
surface trough evolves across the Upper Midwest, with a trailing
cold front dropping into the Southern Plains. Surface high pressure
slides into the Southeast Monday, allowing stronger south/southwest
return flow to establish across TX. Hot and dry conditions and
elevated winds ahead of an advancing front could bring an elevated
fire weather threat to portions of Southern Plains on Day 4/Monday.
Alignment of curing fine fuels with the breezy and dry conditions is
most likely across portions of northwestern TX.

...Days 5-8/Tuesday-Friday...
Forecast guidance shows a surface high pressure across the eastern
U.S. by midweek with potential nascent lee cyclone in the central
High Plains. In response, an increase in southerly winds is expected
across the southern/central Plains. This could present another fire
weather concern for portions of the Southern Plains but some
uncertainty in magnitude and timing of return Gulf moisture
precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 10/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$