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FNUS28 KWNS 012155
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

An upper-level high centered over southern/eastern NV will continue
on Day 3/Saturday and Day 4/Sunday before breaking down early next
week. While model consensus indicates a weak upper-level wave
pushing into northern CA and OR on Day 4/Sunday into Day 5/Monday,
limited moisture and instability, combined with marginally dry
fuels, will suppress dry thunderstorm potential there.
Simultaneously, as this break down occurs, surface winds will become
gusty, especially over the lee slopes adjacent to portions of the
northern High Plains. Though, again, this appears to be more of a
curing event there as fuels remain sub-critical. Mid-next-week, a
ridge will build back in over the western Great Basin and CA with
hints at a possible trough passage again late next week.

The upper-level ridge will contribute to easterly flow over southern
coastal CA supporting a stronger than average offshore flow regime.
Given the warm and dry conditions preceding and following this
event, fuels are receptive and likely to remain so for the
foreseeable future amid the minimum RHs of 15-20%. The tightening
pressure gradient will support breezy (10-20 mph) and gusty offshore
flow over much of the highlighted area with the strongest winds
during the daytime hours on Day 3/Saturday and Day 4/Sunday. Thus,
40% probabilities of critical wind/RH have been added for both of
these days.

..Stearns.. 10/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$