414
FNUS28 KWNS 032242
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

...Synopsis...
By early next week, an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will
precede a shortwave trough moving into the Four Corners region. West
to southwesterly increasing mid-level flow will impact the Southern
Rockies. This shortwave trough will continue eastward into TN Valley
and Midwest into D4/Tuesday, with quasi-zonal flow anticipated
thereafter. By late into next week, the pattern will become more
amplified as a longwave trough replaces the ridge over most of the
CONUS.

...D3/Monday...
A lee trough will deepen Monday afternoon in response to increasing
orthogonal flow and an approaching mid-level shortwave trough. The
resulting surface pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of
stronger flow aloft, will yield breezy westerly downslope flow from
the High Plains of CO, TX, and NM into the OK and TX Panhandles.
Current uncertainties regarding the duration of critical wind
speeds, especially across the southern TX Panhandle, do not warrant
the introduction of higher probabilities at this time. This overall
pattern, however, does suggest the possibility of more widespread
near critical fire weather conditions given the increasing mid-level
height gradient, orientation of such, and position of the low-level
thermal ridge. The latter should extend southwest to northeast from
the Western Low Rolling Plains into northwest TX/the southeastern TX
Panhandle. Locations just west of this axis within the higher wind
speeds will be investigated in subsequent forecasts for the
potential inclusion of a D2 Critical area.

..Barnes.. 01/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$