748
FNUS28 KWNS 192046
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

...Discussion...
Weak mid-level impulses embedded within zonal flow will promote
precipitation chances from the Midwest to the Eastern Seaboard
through early next week. A shallow cold front will expand from the
southern Plains into the Mid-South on Day 3/Monday, slowly
progressing southward through Day 4/Tuesday. Accompanying the front,
near to slightly below average temperatures and increasing moisture
will bring some temporary relief to the southern Plains fuelscape.
Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue across the lower
Mississippi Valley through next week, contributing to forecast ERCs
approaching the 90-95th percentile beyond Day 5/Wednesday; but,
prevailing light winds should suppress overall fire weather
concerns.

A weak mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest on Days
3-4/Monday-Tuesday, bringing better moisture and thunderstorms to
Nevada. Some mixed receptive fuels may reside across portions of
eastern Nevada, though forecast ERCs range from the 50-70th
percentile. Ensemble guidance is in general agreement for ridging to
build over the central-western CONUS late in the workweek as an
upper trough evolves across the Eastern Pacific and impinges upon
the Northwest. The overall pattern indicates stronger southwest
winds could return to the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest
as early as Day 6/Thursday; however, an expected marginal fuelscape
should limit a broader fire weather threat.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$