Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
303 FNUS28 KWNS 282134 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A high amplitude trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest through at least Day 4/Saturday before nudging eastward, leaving much of the western third of the CONUS under increased cloud cover, below-normal temperatures, and periodic precipitation in the meantime. Farther east, a ridge building over the central CONUS will begin to transit eastward ahead of the aforementioned trough, promoting above-normal temperatures over and east of the Great Plains. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is expected to pass through the Southwest and the southern Plains on Day 3/Friday and Day 4/Saturday. As the large trough over the northwestern CONUS begins to move eastward, it will drag with it cooler-than-normal temperatures and another round of widespread precipitation across much of the CONUS early next week. This will drop ERCs across the board even lower headed into next week. One area likely to experience little to no rainfall accumulation through Day 6/Monday will be central/southern OR and northern CA. However, given the recent and forecast cool and wet conditions over the western CONUS, areas most likely to experience northerly surface winds combined with low RHs also have ERCs at or below their 50th percentile. Areas with the driest antecedent conditions (generally over the lower MS River corridor) are anticipated to receive beneficial precipitation. Thus, any threat of significant fire weather remains low and will trend even lower by next week. ..Stearns.. 10/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$