Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 282134
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

A high amplitude trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest
through at least Day 4/Saturday before nudging eastward, leaving
much of the western third of the CONUS under increased cloud cover,
below-normal temperatures, and periodic precipitation in the
meantime. Farther east, a ridge building over the central CONUS will
begin to transit eastward ahead of the aforementioned trough,
promoting above-normal temperatures over and east of the Great
Plains. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is expected to pass through
the Southwest and the southern Plains on Day 3/Friday and Day
4/Saturday. As the large trough over the northwestern CONUS begins
to move eastward, it will drag with it cooler-than-normal
temperatures and another round of widespread precipitation across
much of the CONUS early next week. This will drop ERCs across the
board even lower headed into next week.

One area likely to experience little to no rainfall accumulation
through Day 6/Monday will be central/southern OR and northern CA.
However, given the recent and forecast cool and wet conditions over
the western CONUS, areas most likely to experience northerly surface
winds combined with low RHs also have ERCs at or below their 50th
percentile. Areas with the driest antecedent conditions (generally
over the lower MS River corridor) are anticipated to receive
beneficial precipitation. Thus, any threat of significant fire
weather remains low and will trend even lower by next week.

..Stearns.. 10/28/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$