907
FNUS28 KWNS 242145
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

Upper-level troughing will continue to impinge of the Pacific
Northwest with the main upper low/trough likely remaining offshore.
However, mid-level shortwave troughs will occasionally rotate
through the southwest flow aloft. An upper high will be over the
southern High Plains/vicinity before slowly shifting back to the
west with upper-level ridging likely to build over much of the West
late in the outlook period. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms remain
likely across the Four Corners region, but a slight drying trend is
possible.

...Northwestern US...
Dry and breezy conditions will continue across much of the
northwestern US on Day 3/Sunday as upper-level troughing spreads
farther inland across the region. Elevated to locally critical
conditions are expected, with portions of northern Montana and from
the Sierra Front northward into southeast Oregon favored for
critical conditions. If deeper boundary layer mixing can occur
across more of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, critical
winds/RH become more likely due to the stronger winds between
700-500 mb.

Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will develop across large swaths of
the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely across portions of southern Montana,
northern/eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Drier
thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, but there is enough
uncertainty regarding the coverage, rainfall amounts, and the
following days` thunderstorm/rain chances to preclude issuing
IsoDryT probabilities at this time.

Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected on Day 4/Monday
across portions of northwestern US. If stronger flow aloft remains
over enough of this region and deeper mixing becomes more likely
across a broader area, an expansion of 40% probabilities will be
warranted. The forecast uncertainty regarding the interplay of the
upper-level troughing in the Pacific Northwest/vicinity and the
upper-level ridge over the Plains and much of the Intermountain West
has precluded more/higher probabilities of critical conditions on
Day 4/Monday - Day 6/Wednesday.

...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely to develop across
portions of the southern High Plains late this weekend through at
least mid-week. A 40% area was maintained on Day 4/Monday but
adjusted due to uncertainty regarding live fuel moisture in this
region. Day 4/Monday may be too soon for probabilities, especially
if winds remain below 20 mph. This area will be monitored going
forward.

..Nauslar.. 07/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$