614
FNUS28 KWNS 022110
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

Predominantly quasi-zonal flow will be over much of the CONUS this
week, with upper-level troughs and shortwave ridging progressively
moving through the pattern. One notable exception is deeper
upper-level troughing that is likely to develop over the Northeast
and Great Lakes Day 4/Wednesday - Day 5/Thursday. Stronger westerly
flow will impinge on the Rockies and High Plains by late week, with
a more amplified upper-level ridge in the West and trough in the
East over the weekend currently forecast.

...High Plains...
Two 40% areas were introduced for Day 3/Tuesday, one for southeast
Wyoming and western Nebraska, and the other for east-central New
Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle and Caprock. Lee troughing
will deepen with breezy winds and RH below elevated and perhaps
critical criteria. Given more than a week of dry weather and at
least one night of freezing temperatures, fuels are likely to be
receptive to ignition and spread with dry/windy conditions.

On Day 5/Thursday, stronger westerly flow aloft arrives, with
greater pressure falls on the High Plains. A stronger surface
pressure gradient along with stronger winds mixing into a dry
airmass on the southern High Plains will lead to locally critical
conditions behind a sharpening dryline and south of an approaching
cold front. Multiple days of dry/breezy conditions will precede this
stronger event, which will further cure fuels. The 40% area was
expanded, and a 70% area was considered, but there remains
uncertainty regarding the overlap between critical winds/RH and the
location of those potential conditions.

...Piedmont/vicinity and Southern Great Lakes...
RH below elevated criteria is likely on Day 3/Tuesday in the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but winds are forecast to be light.
Portions of the DelMarVa into Pennsylvania will have winds around
elevated criteria, but RH is likely to be above elevated criteria,
thus probabilities were not included. On Day 4/Wednesday, winds will
increase across the Carolinas through Virginia, but RH is likely to
rise enough to preclude elevated conditions.

Pre-frontal winds will be breezy amid a relatively dry airmass in
portions of southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Lower Michigan,
and northern Indiana on Day 3/Tuesday. There are areas in this
broader region that appear to have receptive fuels, and if
high-resolution forecast guidance indicates better overlap of
elevated to critical winds/RH, an area will likely be needed in a
subsequent outlook.

..Nauslar.. 11/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$