Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
496 FNUS28 KWNS 182101 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$