462
FNUS28 KWNS 072203
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the northwestern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday
translates eastward towards the Great Lakes by Friday. Dry westerly
flow will gradually subside as the week progresses as the trough
pushes eastward, with a similarly declining scale of fire weather
concerns across the Intermountain West and Southwest. At the
surface, an advancing cold front will bring some relief to the
Interior West midweek, but a dry, post-frontal environment could
present a fire weather threat to Sacramento and Central Valleys in
CA on Day 4/Wednesday. A resurgence in subtropical moisture could
emerge late next week across the Southwest as southerly flow east of
a diffuse upper low in the Pacific, aids in northward moisture
transport of moisture from Baja CA.

...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Intermountain West and Southwest...
The upper trough over the Northwest and associated stronger
mid-level flow should support higher surface southwesterly wind
gusts within a dry, well mixed boundary layer on Day 3/Tuesday
across much portions of the Southwest, Four Corners, northeastward
into the central High Plains. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with
higher gusts along with sub 10% RH values are most likely across
northern AZ/southern UT eastward into the Four Corners areas where
70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions remain. As
the upper trough slides into the Northern Plains by Day 4/Wednesday,
a 60-70 knot mid-level jet atop dry post-frontal environment will
continue to promote strong surface winds of up to 40 mph across
southern WY where 40% critical probabilities have been extended.
Fire weather concerns remain but shrink for the Four Corners and
adjacent areas for Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday in the wake of the
departing upper trough. Reintroduction of mid/upper level Pacific
moisture from an upper low southwest of CA could bring a dry
thunderstorm threat back into the Southwest as early as Friday.
However, low predictability precludes introduction of dry
thunderstorm probabilities at this time.

...Day 4/Wednesday - Sacramento alley...
Dry northerly flow behind a cold front across northern CA will
present a fire weather concern for portions and the Sacramento
Valley and adjacent foothills where receptive fuels support fire
spread. Sustained north winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity
likely 15% or below Wednesday afternoon prompted introduction of 40%
critical probabilities for the area. The fuelscape remains complex,
with primarily cured/dry grasses supporting fire spread in lower
elevations.

..Williams.. 06/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$